Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite Fort Worth Invitational Matchup Props
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chesson Hadley.
If you've heard the FantasyLabs Flex podcast, you know that the man (Sleeze) and the machine (Davy) battle it out with their golf takes. Colin Davy builds a model every week to analyze the best matchup props, whereas Drew Stoltz (aka Sleeze), a former golf pro, relies on his inside-the-ropes knowledge. Often they disagree, but sometimes they don't. And those times are where you'll want to pay attention: Last week's consensus players — Marc Leishman and Jimmy Walker — crushed, finishing second and sixth, respectively, and dominating their head-to-head props.
This piece will detail Sleeze's picks and Colin's data on those. Of course, we had to add our golf expert, Jason Sobel, into the mix as well. How do their picks align with Davy's model? And especially the prop they're both on? Take a look below…
Sleeze's Picks
Cameron Smith (-120) over Louis Oosthuizen
Both players are coming off missed cuts at the Players, but Smith's game should suit the setup at Colonial over Oosthuizen. The biggest advantage Smith has in this matchup is his Greens in Regulation discrepancy between the two. Smith ranks in the top 50 on tour in GIR while Oosthuizen ranks just 187th. Oosthuizen's slight advantage with the driver off the tee will take a back seat at Colonial, where fewer drivers will be hit and accuracy is at more of a premium. Smith is the clear choice in my eyes in this head-to-head.
Davy's Model: Oosthuizen (-110) over Smith
The Verdict: Disagree
Si Woo Kim (+120) over Nick Watney
Si Woo Kim has the perfect type of game to suit Colonial and tends to play well on courses that favor accuracy over length, as shown by his runner-up finish recently at Harbour Town and his victory at The Players last year. Watney is a player who gains most of his advantage with his length off the tee, which will be less of a factor this week. His 16-yard length advantage will be negated, and Kim's accuracy and iron play will be the determining factor over Watney, who has just one top 10 in 15 starts this season. Kim is the play in this matchup, especially with this line putting him as the underdog.
Davy's Model: Watney (-125) over Kim
The Verdict: Disagree
Jon Rahm (-130) over Rickie Fowler
While both are long drivers of the ball, Rahm gains his advantage here by being able to move the ball both ways with ease. There are a lot of holes at Colonial that demand a specific shot shape off the tee, which favors a player who can move the ball both ways. I also give Rahm the slight advantage in wedge play, an area in which nearly every winner at Colonial excels. This course provides a lot of opportunity to hit wedges and short irons into par-4s, and in this matchup that plays to Rahm's favor. The Spaniard is the play this week.
Davy's Model: Rahm (-118) vs. Fowler
The Verdict: Non-juiced line agrees
Sobel's Picks
Zach Johnson (-110) over Matt Kuchar
Fading Kuch is usually an enter-at-your-own-risk proposition, but ZJ is the all-time leading money winner at Colonial, a two-time champion who owns the 72-hole scoring record. He also happens to be trending in the right direction. There are course horses and then there’s Johnson at this track, which is perfectly suited for him.
Davy's Model: Kuchar (-135) over Johnson
The Verdict: Disagree
Rory Sabbatini (-115) over Ollie Schniederjans
At 42, Sabbo is enjoying a career resurgence, putting together eight top-31 results in his past 11 starts. I like this matchup even better, though, as an opening-round enterprise, considering Sabbatini’s 67.5 scoring average on his past six Thursdays, including a stint in the pole position as first-round leader at Harbour Town, which compares nicely with Colonial.
Davy's Model: Sabbatini (-136) over Schniederjans
The Verdict: Agree
Emiliano Grillo (-125) over Xander Schauffele
Some matchups are mere fades of one player against another. Not this one. The truth is, I really like Schauffele this week; it’s just that I really, really like Grillo. Another guy whose game has been moving in the right direction recently, I think it’s only a matter of time before he seriously contends on a Sunday back nine. Don’t be surprised if it happens this week.
Davy's Model: Grillo (-138) over Schauffele
The Verdict: Agree
Jason Dufner (-105) over Aaron Wise
There’s no doubt last week’s champion is a budding star, but it remains to be seen how he responds after the mental energy of winning his first PGA Tour title, which included an extra-lengthy Sunday final round. Meanwhile, Duf keeps doing Duf things, having finished T-5 in his last start at The Players.
Davy's Model: Dufner (-132) over Wise
The Verdict: Agree
Double Down
Both Sleeze and Sobel are on the same prop…
Chesson Hadley (-120) over Kevin Na
Sobel: Another player who seems primed for bigger and better things very soon, I feel like I’m touting the talents of Hadley on a weekly basis. He especially excels in the ball-striking categories, which should correlate perfectly for this week’s tourney.
Sleeze: Hadley has been as hot as almost anyone on the PGA Tour with five consecutive top-20 finishes and six top 10s on the season. Colonial is a course that will reward his great iron play and ability to hit greens; he ranks 13th in the latter category on tour this year. Na is coming off a top 10 at the Byron Nelson, but the upside and consistency of Hadley versus Na gives me high conviction on Hadley.
Davy's Model: Na (-148) over Hadley
The Verdict: Davy Model disagrees
Odds via sportsbook.ag
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
