Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite Memorial Tournament Matchup Props

Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite Memorial Tournament Matchup Props article feature image
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Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ryan Moore

If you’ve heard the FantasyLabs Flex podcast, you know that the man (Sleeze) and the machine (Davy) battle it out with their golf takes. Colin Davy builds a model every week to analyze the best matchup props, whereas Drew Stoltz (aka Sleeze), a former golf pro, relies on his inside-the-ropes knowledge. Often they disagree, but sometimes they don’t. And those times are when you’ll want to pay attention.

This piece will detail Sleeze’s picks and Colin’s data on those. Of course, we had to add our golf expert, Jason Sobel, into the mix as well. How do their picks align with Davy’s model? We have no overlap between Sobel and Sleeze this week, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a ton of value …

 


Sleeze’s Picks

Jason Day (-120) over Rory McIlroy

Day has had a remarkable season, finishing in the top 22 in each of his nine events played. He is coming off a win at Quail Hollow and backed that up with a top five at The Players. After two weeks off, he returns to his home course, where his local knowledge of the greens and his putter will be the deciding factors. Rory returns to action after a runner-up finish at the BMW in Europe. The long travel week for Rory, combined with Day’s excellent recent form and local knowledge, gives the Aussie the edge this week.

Davy’s Model: Day (-180) over McIlroy

The Verdict: Agree

Charl Schwartzel (+100) over Adam Scott

Schwartzel has been a frequent “short” of mine this season, but he has finally started to round into form. He has finished in the top 10 in his past two starts and is coming off two weeks of rest. Adam Scott, who I have also “shorted” frequently this year, has shown signs of life recently with two top-20 finishes in his past three starts. His return to the broomstick putter has contributed to that, but Scott will be playing his fifth consecutive event this week, which is grueling, especially for a guy who typically doesn’t play more than two in a row. We may have seen evidence of him tiring out last week, with him tying for 52nd at Colonial. Schwartzel’s resurgence paired with Scott’s tiresome schedule makes the former the pick here, especially at +100 odds.

Davy’s Model: Scott (-147) over Schwartzel

The Verdict: Disagree

Chesson Hadley -1.5 strokes (+115) over Billy Horschel

The moneyline here is Hadley -130. I am taking the value here and betting that Hadley beats Horschel by more than 1.5 strokes for the tournament on the +115 line. Hadley continued his stellar season last week at Colonial with his sixth consecutive top 20. I’m not sure there is a more consistent player each week right now than Hadley. The main reason for this is his iron play, which will be put to the test at Muirfield. He ranks 14th on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation, which will be the most important stat of the week in Ohio. Horschel has had some solid play of late but it pales in comparison to what Hadley’s done. Recent form plus a strong ball-striking advantage makes Hadley the play, and I especially like the plus odds at -1.5 strokes.

Davy’s Model: Hadley (-125) over Horschel

The Verdict: Non-juiced line agrees with moneyline

Marc Leishman (-120) over Patrick Reed

Leishman, one of the better iron players on tour, returns to a course where he has finished in the top 15 each of the past three years. He is coming off a runner-up finish at the Byron Nelson and has finished in the top 10 in two of his past four events. Reed is playing for the first time since The Players, where he finished 41st. Reed’s track record at Muirfield does not hold up to Leishman’s, and he could also be dealing with a post-Masters hangover still. This is a great matchup, but Leishman’s historical performance makes him the play in my book.

Davy’s Model: Leishman (-133) over Reed

The Verdict: Agree

 


Sobel’s Picks

Ryan Moore (-125) over Charles Howell III

I’m very bullish on Moore this week. His last two starts at Muirfield Village haven’t been too exciting, but he counts this among his favorite setups all year. Add in the fact that he’s finished in the top 30 in five of his past six starts and it should equate to another solid performance.

Davy’s Model: Moore (-112) over Howell

The Verdict: Non-juiced line agrees

Keegan Bradley (-125) over Kevin Kisner

There’s a strong correlation between Muirfield Village and Firestone, the latter of which has been a favorite of Bradley’s over the years. Though he hasn’t played there since 2015, he owns a win, a runner-up and nothing lower than 17th place in five starts. Expect this to be the start of a nice summer run for him.

Davy’s Model: Bradley (-121) over Kisner

The Verdict: Agree

Kyle Stanley (-105) over Adam Hadwin

It worries me a bit to fade Hadwin, who’s a made-cut machine, but Stanley is an excellent ball-striker who tends to play some of his best golf on northern, tree-lined tracks.

Davy’s Model: Hadwin (-125) over Stanley

The Verdict: Disagree

Beau Hossler (-120) over Danny Lee

While Lee has shown signs of life in recent weeks, Hossler is in a higher class talent-wise. Here’s to thinking he’s overcome those weekend struggles that plagued the early part of his campaign and can build on that momentum this week.

Davy’s Model: Hossler (-152) over Lee

The Verdict: Agree

Xander Schauffele (-115) over Zach Johnson

I really liked X-man at Colonial last week, which didn’t pan out, but I’m back for more after his missed cut. None other than tourney-host Jack Nicklaus praised his swing this week, which is quickly becoming known as one of the best moves in the game.

Davy’s Model: Johnson (-121) over Schauffele

The Verdict: Disagree

Odds via sportsbook.ag