Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite Players Championship Matchup Props
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chesson Hadley
If you've heard the FantasyLabs Flex podcast, you know that the man (Sleeze) and the machine (Davy) battle it out with their golf takes. Colin Davy builds a model every week to analyze the best matchup props, whereas Drew Stoltz (aka Sleeze), a former golf pro, relies on his inside-the-ropes knowledge. Often they disagree, but sometimes they don't. And those times — the props they're aligned on — have been profitable, going 4-1 over the past couple of weeks.
This piece will detail Sleeze's picks and Colin's data on those. Of course, we had to add our golf expert, Jason Sobel, into the mix as well. How do their picks align with Davy's model? And especially the prop they're both on? Take a look below …
Sleeze's Picks
Phil Mickelson (-120) over Sergio Garcia
Sergio hasn't shown any form of late, missing his last two cuts (Masters and Valero), and he's made just four cuts in seven starts this year. Meanwhile, Phil is 11-for-12 on cuts made, with six top-10s, and is coming off a very sharp week at Quail Hollow. TPC Sawgrass takes driver out of Phil's hands a lot, which is his biggest weakness, and puts more emphasis on his iron play and short game, which are two of his strengths.
Davy's Model: Mickelson (-136) over Garcia
The Verdict: Agree
Ian Poulter (-110) over Tony Finau
Poulter backed up his win in Houston with a top-10 at Harbour Town, a course that is somewhat similar to TPC Sawgrass in that driver is not used frequently. Poulter has an advantage with his short game and putting, and he finished second at this course last year. Finau doesn't get to utilize his length advantage, which is his biggest asset.
Davy's Model: Finau (-157) over Poulter
The Verdict: Disagree
Branden Grace (+110) over Louis Oosthuizen
Grace is 9-for-9 on cuts made this year and has finished outside of the top 30 just once. He's a straight driver of the ball and has a significantly better Long-Term Greens in Regulation (GIR) mark than Oosthuizen. Grace probably has lower upside than Oosthuizen but definitely is less volatile, which I think is an advantage on a course such as TPC Sawgrass. I like Grace in this matchup, especially since he is an underdog.
Davy's Model: Grace (-120) over Oosthuizen
The Verdict: Agree
Sobel's Picks
Jordan Spieth (-120) over Jason Day
Everyone is going to fade Spieth because of his three straight MCs here. Good. The course suits his game, and the law of averages works to his advantage this week.
Davy's Model: Day (-134) over Spieth
The Verdict: Disagree
Emiliano Grillo (-135) over Kevin Kisner
Very quietly, Grillo has been putting together an excellent season. Kiz lost here in a playoff a few years ago, but all that means is that the public will probably be on him.
Davy's Model: Grillo (-161) over Kisner
The Verdict: Agree
Dustin Johnson (-110) over Rory McIlroy
DJ leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, a huge stat at TPC Sawgrass. Rory said the other day that he loves this course — then amended that to “likes.” Sounds as if he’s trying to convince himself.
Davy's Model: Johnson (-167) over McIlroy
The Verdict: Agree
Tommy Fleetwood (-105) over Francesco Molinari
The Italian owns a nice record at this event, but Fleetwood the Flusher is among the world’s best ball-strikers right now. Expect a strong week.
Davy's Model: Fleetwood (-115) over Molinari
The Verdict: Agree
Double Down
Here is the matchup both Sleeze and Sobel picked …
Chesson Hadley (-120) over Russell Henley
Sleeze: Hadley is playing very solid golf, finishing in the top 20 in his past four starts. He also ranks 10th on tour in Greens in Regulation, which is a big advantage over Henley. One weakness for Hadley is driving accuracy, which should be minimized this week by hitting fewer drivers. Henley is coming off a missed cut at Quail Hollow last week and has only one top-10 on the year compared to Hadley's six.
Sobel: Finally released from the exile of the Web.com Tour, Hadley has been consistently solid this season. I love him for a top-10 finish this week.
Davy's Model: Henley (-137) over Hadley
The Verdict: Sleeze and Sobel agree; the Davy Model disagrees
Odds via sportsbook.ag
Pictured above: Chesson Hadley
How would you rate this article?