Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite St. Jude Classic Matchup Props
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tony Finau
If you've heard the FantasyLabs Flex podcast, you know that the man (Sleeze) and the machine (Davy) battle it out with their golf takes. Colin Davy builds a model every week to analyze the best matchup props, whereas Drew Stoltz (aka Sleeze), a former golf pro, relies on his inside-the-ropes knowledge. Often they disagree, but sometimes they don't. And those times are when you'll want to pay attention.
This piece will detail Sleeze's picks and Colin's data on those. Of course, we had to add our golf expert, Jason Sobel, into the mix as well. How do their picks align with Davy's model? Especially the one they both like? Check it out …
Sleeze's Picks
Tony Finau (-1.5 strokes at -120) over Charl Schwartzel
Last week was the first week I hadn't shorted Schwartzel in any bet thus far this season, and it may be my last. After two solid weeks in a row for Schwartzel — he had a ninth at Quail Hollow and a second at The Players — I thought he may have finally turned a corner. But he followed that up with a first-round 77 at Muirfield Village and an eventual MC. This pick comes down to one simple stat for me: Finau ranks third in Greens in Regulation this year versus 153 for Schwartzel. This course is designed for good iron players, and Finau has an enormous advantage in that area. Finau and the -1.5 strokes is the definite play here.
Davy's Model: Finau -198 over Schwartzel
The Verdict: Agree
Ben Crane (-120) over Harris English
This biggest discrepancy between these two players is driving distance. English averages 301 yards off the tee vs. only 280 for Crane. That stat will mean less this week with all of the doglegs taking driver out of the hands of a player such as English. Crane ranks 18th in par-4 scoring this year, while English ranks 106th. This stat is very important since there are only two par-5s at TPC Southwind. Crane is also coming off his best finish of the year — a top 10 at Colonial — at a course that is similar in style to the course they will see this week.
Davy's Model: Crane -130 over English
The Verdict: Agree
Chez Reavie (-115) over Chris Kirk
You could not find a course more suited for the game of Chez Reavie than TPC Southwind. He ranks third in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour, which is a must at this golf course. Further, he ranks in the top 60 in GIR, whereas Kirk ranks 120th. After tinkering with a few different clubs over the past few weeks, Reavie is finally dialed in on his equipment, as evidenced by the back-to-back 64s he shot this past week on his home course in Arizona. His ball-striking advantage will play a huge role this week in Memphis and makes him the easy choice for me in this matchup.
Davy's Model: Reavie -135 over Kirk
The Verdict: Agree
Sobel's Picks
Luke List (-155) over Kiradech Aphibarnrat
There are a ton of tough matchups this week featuring guys I really like. Peter Uihlein against Joaquin Niemann? Love ‘em both. Crane against English? Same. And while I do like the Barnrat off a few strong results, List is one of my favorites on the board, playing a track in the state where he played his college golf.
Davy's Model: List -145 over Aphibarnrat
The Verdict: Non-juiced line agrees
Kevin Tway (-125) over Keith Mitchell
With a pair of top 10s in his last three starts, Tway should again be in his element this week. Mitchell really struggled at the Memorial, which could just be an anomaly, but the bet here is that he won’t immediately be able to get back on track.
Davy's Model: No line
The Verdict: N/A
Austin Cook (-125) over Tom Hoge
My hunchy pick of the week, Cook hasn’t been able to continue his hot early season play, but he’s put up two consecutive top-25 finishes in Memphis, proving the course obviously suits his game.
Davy's Model: Cook -108 over Hoge
The Verdict: Disagree
Scott Piercy (-135) over Joel Dahmen
A strong ball-striker, Piercy could get himself into the mix. He admitted he didn’t play his best golf while winning the Zurich with Billy Horschel, which could mean he’s ready to start playing some better golf.
Davy's Model: No line
The Verdict: N/A
Double Down
There's one prop Sleeze and Sobel agree on …
Corey Conners (-120) over Grayson Murray
Sleeze: If you look at the finishes by Murray over the course of this season, you will see that he has struggled with position golf courses that do not allow him to use his driver as often. This is evidenced by his MCs at both Colonial and Harbour Town. This setup at TPC Southwind favors a player such as Conners, who recently finished in the top 10 at Colonial. I think these players are comparable in terms of talent and cuts made this season, but this course setup favors Conners much more than it does Murray. Conners is the move here.
Sobel: I think TPC Southwind correlates well to Innisbrook, where Conners contended a few months ago. He qualified for the U.S. Open on Monday, and while I generally don’t love players who started their week with a 36-hole grindfest, he should have the advantage over an inconsistent Murray.
Davy's Model: No line
The Verdict: N/A
Odds via sportsbook.ag
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