WGC-Mexico Championship: How to Bet the Final Round

WGC-Mexico Championship: How to Bet the Final Round article feature image
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© Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Another 18 holes are in the books at the WGC-Mexico Championship, but we still don’t have a clear picture about who will actually win this title. We do have the information we need to identify value betting opportunities, however.

Shubhankar Sharma held his own on Saturday and maintained his two-shot lead heading into the the final round. Sharma moved from +700 to +450 and is now a slight favorite to take down the tournament.

But with a bunch of heavy hitters within four shots, he’s got his work cut out for him on Sunday.

Sharma has three major champions right behind him in the odds at +550. Sergio Garcia and Phil Mickelson are two shots back at that number, while Dustin Johnson is the same price at three back.

If that wasn’t enough, Justin Thomas threw his name into the mix with a course record 62 to get within four shots. Thomas is available at +1200.

Realistically, 10 players remain in contention. Tyrrell Hatton (+800) and Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+1000) are also in second, two shots back. It was nice to get a good round from Hatton on Saturday. He joins Garcia in giving us another mid-tier play in contention.

Pat Perez (+1800), Xander Schauffele (+1800) and Brian Harman (+2000) all still have a chance as well and sit three shots back.

Nobody else is better than +5000, so it’s likely the winner will come from the aforementioned group golfers. The one I’d think about adding is Schauffele. He had a rough day on the greens, losing nearly three strokes to the field, but was able to survive the bad round and stay in contention. He’s No. 2 in the field this week in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, so if he cleans up the putting, he’s capable of making a comeback.

Of the favorites, I’d lean toward Garcia. I won’t actually bet him at +550, because we already tabbed him in our preview piece at +2800. But he’s crushing this course off the tee, where he’s tied for first in strokes gained, and he’s second in Strokes Gained: Approach. He hasn’t fared well on the few occasions he has missed greens, which is really the only thing that’s kept him out of the lead so far.

Matchups

A couple of 3-ball matchups have my interest for the final round. I already mentioned how Schauffele has thrived from tee to green, so I’m going to take him at +300 in his matchup with Dustin Johnson and Brian Harman. Obviously Johnson is a clear favorite, but Schauffele has been playing well enough this week to beat him. As for Harman, he’s been all putter, picking up 2.42 strokes per round with the flat stick. I expect him to fade on Sunday.

The other pick is Jhonattan Vegas at +225 over Brendan Steele and Kevin Kisner. Vegas and Steele have both played well tee to green this week (Steele ranks first, Vegas 11th), but each has struggled with the putter. I think it will be a head-to-head competition with those two, because Kisner has really struggled off the tee this week, ranking 60th in the 64-player field. That should catch up to him. Steele is at +160, so I’ll back Vegas at the larger number.


Top Photo: Shubhankar Sharma

Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Odds via Bovada on March 3.