Sobel’s AT&T Byron Nelson Round 2 Matchup Bets: Pay Attention to Changing Weather

Sobel’s AT&T Byron Nelson Round 2 Matchup Bets: Pay Attention to Changing Weather article feature image
Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Scott Piercy

  • Jason Sobel highlights his three favorite matchup bets for the second round of the AT&T Byron Nelson on Friday.
  • Changing weather throughout the day could give the afternoon golfers an advantage, though matchup bets feature players teeing off around the same times.

Sometimes you ride the wave. Sometimes the wave knocks you down.

We haven’t seen a stark contrast in early/late and late/early waves for a while, but that’s going to be the case this week.

In Thursday’s opening round, the morning wave owned a scoring average of 68.70 under favorable weather, while the afternoon wave went 70.91.

But get this: On Friday, conditions are forecasted to switch, with the afternoon playing easier, giving an obvious advantage to those who are early/late this week.

“Given the tougher conditions [Thursday] afternoon and then [Friday] morning, it’s just kind of about hanging around and trying to make something happen on the weekend,” said Jordan Spieth, who is rarely shy about pointing out when he’s in the worse of the two waves.

Let’s focus on the afternoon guys in our second-round matchup bets, where you’ll also find a few potential live outright bets, too.

Ryan Palmer over Daniel Berger (-110)

My colleague Josh Perry wrote about taking Palmer as a live outright bet entering the second round and he owns a nice track record on these picks, so it stands to reason that we should expect a solid round from the Zurich co-winner today.

As Perry mentioned, Palmer’s ball-striking numbers were terrific, while he lost ground on the greens. Berger was solid across the board, shooting 66, but hasn’t put many back-to-back rounds together this season.

Scott Piercy over C.T. Pan (-130)

If Perry is live-betting Palmer after one round, then I’ll see his pick and raise him Piercy.

There are a lot of similar characteristics between the two of them: Experienced veterans, long hitters, streaky players.

It’s always tough to gauge Piercy based on that last characteristic, but after a 4-under 67, I think we’re getting the right side of that streakiness this week.

J.J. Spaun over Russell Knox (-115)

With only five rounds played at Trinity Forest so far, there’s not a whole lot of course history on which we can rely. But here’s one thing we do know: Spaun really likes this place.

He was T-3 last year and sits T-13 after one round this week, posting scores of 64-69-69-64-66 in those five trips around this track. Knox is always a good fit on links courses, but there’s clearly something about this one that appeals to Spaun.