Why Charles Howell Is a Risky PGA Championship Bet

Aug 07, 2018 12:00 PM EDT

For betting odds and analysis of the top 80 golfers in the 2018 PGA Championship field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Charles Howell PGA Championship Betting Odds

DFS Pricing: $7,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

PGA Championship History (2013-2017): MC, MC, T-65, N/A, T-73

Odds: +25,000 to win, +1200 top-10 finish, +600 top-20 finish, -200 to make cut, +150 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +600 top-20 finish

Best Matchup Value: N/A

Tee Times: 9:40 a.m. ET (Thursday); 3:05 p.m. ET (Friday)


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The Outlook

Howell is typically a DFS favorite with his 12% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks. He’s missed just two cuts this year: at the Honda Classic in February and the British Open.

That said, I’m not too high on him this week. Since 2012, Howell has missed three cuts and finished 65th or worse at PGA Championship events. His putter is also running extremely cold right now: He’s averaging 31.4 putts per round over the past six weeks and ranks 73rd in Strokes Gained: Putting over his past 24 rounds.

I’d rather take a shot at Emiliano Grillo or Tyrrell Hatton in this price range; both boast better odds than Howell.


The Metrics

Here’s how Howell ranks in the PGA Championship field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

    • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-38th
    • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-65th
    • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 25th
    • Long-Term Driving Distance: T-50th
    • Strokes Gained: Approach: 47th

Want more PGA Championship coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 80 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Justin Bailey on Twitter
@justinbailey32

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