Freedman’s Favorite PGA Round 1 Matchup (Jan. 17): Aaron Wise vs. Phil Mickelson
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phil Mickelson
- In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring his favorite prop bet for each day.
- On Thursday, he looks at the PGA Desert Classic and the golf head-to-head Round 1 matchup of Aaron Wise and Phil Mickelson.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
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- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
- NBA: 3-2-0, +0.82 Units
- NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite PGA Round 1 Matchup for Thursday, Jan. 17: Aaron Wise (-125) vs. Phil Mickelson (+105)
Wise and Mickelson tee off in the Desert Classic at 12:10 p.m. ET, and their first-round matchup has caught my eye.
The Action Network’s Senior Golf Writer Jason Sobel believes that Mickelson will be in midseason form, and I like him at plus odds.
In the FantasyLabs Golf Models, Lefty has the superior long-term numbers with his adjusted round score (69.0 vs. 69.6) and scrambling rate (58.2% vs. 52.8%).
Long-term par-5 scoring has historically been important at Stadium Course, and Mickelson has the clear edge on Wise there (-4.7 vs. -3.7) as well as long-term putts per round (28.4 vs. 29.3).
Wise finished 17th at this tournament last year, and he has the superior odds to win (+3300 vs. +4000), but for at least Round 1, I give the edge to Mickelson’s vast experience and superior form.
This matchup is available at MyBookie. I would bet it down to -105.
The Pick: Mickelson (+105)