Freedman’s Favorite Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup: Jason Day vs. Rickie Fowler
Jasen Vinlove, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Rickie Fowler
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Wednesday, he looks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational & the golf head-to-head matchup between Jason Day & Rickie Fowler.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have 10 NBA and four NHL games.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
243-209-12, +32.06 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 126-105-4, +14.91 Units
- NHL: 65-78-7, -6.66 Units
- Golf: 4-5-1, -0.35 Units
- NASCAR: 5-4-0. +2.30 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
- NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 22-2-0. +12.14 Units
Favorite Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup: Jason Day vs. Rickie Fowler
- Rickie Fowler: -135
- Jason Day: +115
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented by Mastercard tees off at Bay Hill Club & Lodge on Thursday (Mar. 7, 6:45 a.m. ET).
Both Fowler and Day are highlighted in Jason Sobel’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview.
Coming in fresh off a T-2 at the Honda, where he owned the low score on the weekend, Fowler should be able to parlay that momentum into a strong result.
Day has played some excellent golf in his most recent starts, without a trophy to show for it yet. The 2016 champion was 22nd and 23rd here the last two years, but I expect him to seriously contend this time.
Of the two, I prefer Day because of his numbers in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Over the past 75 weeks, Day and Fowler both have a 68.1 adjusted round score. For the past six weeks, Day has the better mark (67.1 vs. 67.9).
In Justin Bailey’s daily fantasy breakdown, the importance of greens in regulation (GIR), driving distance and birdie scoring is noted. Fowler has the superior long-term GIR (69.7% vs. 65.9%), but Day has the edge in the other categories.
- Driving distance: 309.0 vs. 300.5
- Birdies: 16.7 vs. 16.1
Fowler has the better par-4 scoring (-2.1 vs. -1.9), but Day bests him in par-5 scoring (-5.3 vs. -4.8), which will probably be more important this week, given that Bay Hill is relatively long at 7,419 yards and has more par 5s than most tracks.
Day has six top-20 and three top-five finishes in his past six tournaments (since the PGA Tour Championship). Over that same time, Fowler has played in seven events with three top-five finishes but also two outside the top 35.
Given Day’s steadiness and superiority in some key metrics, I’d bet him down to +105.
The Pick: Day (+115)