Justin Thomas Is a Cash-Game DFS Lock at PGA Championship

Aug 07, 2018 11:00 AM EDT

For betting odds and analysis of the top 80 golfers in the 2018 PGA Championship field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Justin Thomas PGA Championship Betting Odds

DFS Pricing: $9,700 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

PGA Championship History (2013-2017): N/A, N/A, T-18, T-66, WON

Odds: +1400 to win, +150 top-10 finish, -165 top-20 finish, -800 to make cut, +450 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +1400 to win

Best Matchup Value (Sportsbook): Thomas (-125) over Rory McIlroy (-105)

Tee Times: 8:23 a.m. ET (Thursday); 1:48 p.m. ET (Friday)


>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time golf odds and track your PGA Championship bets.


The Outlook

We were high on JT last week, and he rewarded bettors with a win at the Bridgestone. His game is suited much better for non-links courses, and he’s shown what he can do at a PGA Championship, getting his first major there last season. One thing that makes the DFS marketplace unique from the betting marketplace is that prices don’t change once released. DraftKings released his salary before last week’s victory, which means he’s way underpriced now at $9,700. He’ll be the most popular DFS play of the week.


The Metrics

Here’s how Thomas ranks in the PGA Championship field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

    • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-3rd
    • Recent Adjusted Round Score: 4th
    • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 30th
    • Long-Term Driving Distance: 7th
    • Strokes Gained: Approach: 79th

Want more PGA Championship coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 80 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Thomas.

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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