Mayakoba Classic Betting Guide: Longshots Are A Good Bet at El Camaleon

Nov 08, 2018 9:17 PM EST
  • Rickie Fowler is the favorite to win the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico this weekend.
  • Fowler and Jordan Spieth may be the class of the field, but longshots often win this tournament.
  • I have four players at 100-1 or longer on my card at El Camaleon Golf Course.

We were so close to a pretty good week in Las Vegas, but a triple bogey at the last by Lucas Glover and an ill-timed bogey on a par 5 by Richy Werenski was worth about a 14 unit swing in the wrong direction.

Time to dive back in with the Mayakoba Classic where Patton Kizzire was very good to us last year, holding off Rickie Fowler at +6600.

The Mayakoba is another easy fall swing tournament that tends to have a really weak field.

One key strategy for this tournament is to back players that have played competitive during the fall.  Most of the field fits that description this year, but their are two guys at the top of the odds in Zach Johnson and Kevin Kisner making their first starts of the autumn. I’d avoid both of those players.

The Course

As mentioned, this is a pretty easy course. The winner usually gets into the high teens or low 20s under par.

El Camaleon Golf Club is a short course, checking in at 6,987 yards for a par 71. Because of that lack of length, we’ve seen shorter hitters play well here. Graeme McDowell, Brian Gay and Fred Funk all have victories since this tournament began in 2007.

Even last year’s winner, Kizzire, fits that mold to some extent. He’s not long and is especially inaccurate for how far he hits it, so seeing that driver neutralized here helps players who don’t have a great tee ball.

The Favorites

It’s usually not the best of the best heading down to Mexico this week, but Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth will continue their fall tour after making their season debuts in Las Vegas.

Fowler was a runner up to Kizzire last year and is coming off a hot final round at TPC Summerlin last week. He’s a deserving favorite at +800. Spieth is next in line at +1200. He’s making his debut on a course that should fit his game. I could see people backing Spieth just based on his talent and the weakness of the field. He’s basically the same odds to win this week as he is to win the Masters in five months. This field doesn’t hold a candle to Augusta.

It’s been five years since one of the favorites has taken this title. Harris English claimed the crown at +2000 in 2013. Since then, this has been a tournament for that mid-tier group, so that’s where my card will start.

Mid-tier

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Credit:

Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Sam Ryder

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