Mayakoba Classic Betting Guide: Longshots Are A Good Bet at El Camaleon

We were so close to a pretty good week in Las Vegas, but a triple bogey at the last by Lucas Glover and an ill-timed bogey on a par 5 by Richy Werenski was worth about a 14 unit swing in the wrong direction.

Time to dive back in with the Mayakoba Classic where Patton Kizzire was very good to us last year, holding off Rickie Fowler at +6600.

The Mayakoba is another easy fall swing tournament that tends to have a really weak field.

One key strategy for this tournament is to back players that have played competitive during the fall.  Most of the field fits that description this year, but their are two guys at the top of the odds in Zach Johnson and Kevin Kisner making their first starts of the autumn. I'd avoid both of those players.

The Course

As mentioned, this is a pretty easy course. The winner usually gets into the high teens or low 20s under par.

El Camaleon Golf Club is a short course, checking in at 6,987 yards for a par 71. Because of that lack of length, we've seen shorter hitters play well here. Graeme McDowell, Brian Gay and Fred Funk all have victories since this tournament began in 2007.

Even last year's winner, Kizzire, fits that mold to some extent. He's not long and is especially inaccurate for how far he hits it, so seeing that driver neutralized here helps players who don't have a great tee ball.

The Favorites

It's usually not the best of the best heading down to Mexico this week, but Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth will continue their fall tour after making their season debuts in Las Vegas.

Fowler was a runner up to Kizzire last year and is coming off a hot final round at TPC Summerlin last week. He's a deserving favorite at +800. Spieth is next in line at +1200. He's making his debut on a course that should fit his game. I could see people backing Spieth just based on his talent and the weakness of the field. He's basically the same odds to win this week as he is to win the Masters in five months. This field doesn't hold a candle to Augusta.

It's been five years since one of the favorites has taken this title. Harris English claimed the crown at +2000 in 2013. Since then, this has been a tournament for that mid-tier group, so that's where my card will start.

Mid-tier

Sam Ryder caught my eye the most in this midtier and he's available at +6750 on Bookmaker. He's been trending in the right direction for months now. He's finished in the top 10 in four of his last eight starts and has a pair of top 5s in the fall already.

I'm also going to stay in that same range with Scott Piercy at +6500 on Bookmaker. He backed up a fifth-place finish in Korea with a 10th in Las Vegas. He also gained strokes on the field in every area of the game at the Shriners, so he appears to be trending toward a big result.

Lastly, I'm going back to the well with Patrick Rodgers at +8500 on Bookmaker. Rodgers struggled a bit off the tee, but had everything else going well for him. With a little less importance on the driver, this could be a week he contends.

Longshots

Guys come from out of nowhere to win this event with some regularity. Just two years ago, Pat Perez was a 125-1 longshot who claimed the Mayakoba crown.

I've targeted four players in this range starting with Danny Lee at 100-1 on Sportsbook. Lee played three solid rounds and was lurking around the top 10 in Las Vegas before a poor final round sent him plummeting down the board. I'll back him again this week. I think his game is in a good spot and these shorter courses fit him better than the bomber tracks we'll see more when the calendar turns.

Next up is Bill Haas at 125-1 on Bookmaker. Haas has two top-15 finishes in the fall and should be anxious to get back in the winners circle after failing to retain full status following his medical exemption. Haas is also in the 40-50/1 range on most books, so getting a number nearly triple that is hard to pass up.

Lastly, I'm going with a couple Web.com grads in Anders Albertson at 135-1 on Bookmaker and Carlos Ortiz at 180/1 on Sportsbook. Albertson was one of the stronger players on the Web.com tour and has a fifth-place finish already this fall.

For Ortiz, this is a chance to play in his home country, so he'll get a little added support from the fans. He missed the cut a week ago, but that was in large part due to losing nearly six strokes with the putter.

Full Card

• Sam Ryder +6750 for .49 units
• Scott Piercy +6500 for .51 units
• Patrick Rodgers +8500 for .39 units
• Danny Lee +10000 for .33 units
• Bill Haas +12500 for .27 units
• Anders Albertson +13500 for .25 units
• Carlos Ortiz +18000 to win/+600 to top 20 (.18/1 unit)

Total Stake: 2.42 units

Season: -12.58