Perry’s 2020 BMW Championship Betting Guide, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Finding Value With Daniel Berger

Credit:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Berger.

  • Josh Perry breaks down his golf betting guide for the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club.
  • Check out his full course breakdown, favorite outright bets, sleeper picks, and longshots below.

Editors note: Webb Simpson has withdrawn from the BMW Championship on Tuesday for rest.

The final round of the Northern Trust was nothing but a Dustin Johnson coronation ceremony.

There was never a moment over the last three days where it didn’t feel like he was in complete control on his way to an 11-shot win in the first FedEx Cup playoff event.

Next up, we’ll head to Olympia Fields near Chicago for the BMW Championship. With the field slashed from 125 players down to 70 this week, it will resemble more of a WGC event with no cut this week.

This will be the first time a PGA Tour event has been held on the course since 2003 when Jim Furyk won the U.S. Open.

The Course

Olympia Fields measures at a little over 7,300 yards for a par 70, so we’re unlikely to see the super low scores we saw last week on this course.

We haven’t seen the course play host to the top pros in quite some time, but if Furyk won here, it gives us a decent idea of what will be required this week.

It’s unlikely the rough will be at a U.S. Open level, but a premium will still likely be placed on accuracy. Water will be in play on about half the holes, so precision both off the tee and with the approach game will be necessary to avoid the hazards.

The Favorites

No surprise after last week’s performance, but DJ opened as the +800 favorite. It’s really not even that bad of a number either. We’ve seen in the playoffs where players have caught a hot streak and won back-to-back events, notably Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, Billy Horschel in 2014 and Rory McIlroy in 2012. Johnson is also tied with Rory for the most wins in the FedEx Cup with five now.

Jon Rahm is next in line at +1000 and played well last week, finishing sixth. DeChambeau and Justin Thomas are next at +1400.

Thomas has been really hit and miss the last couple months with a win at the WGC event and a playoff loss to Collin Morikawa at Muirfield Village. But his other three starts have all resulted in finishes outside the top 15. DeChambeau will get some love this week after winning the 2015 U.S. Amateur on this course. But he’s also struggled with consistency in recent weeks, winning in Detroit and playing well at the PGA Championship, then also missing the cut at TPC Boston last week where he had won just two years earlier.

McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are in the next spot at +1800. This is the largest number we’ve seen on Rory in a long time, but his game is in a weird spot. He has made all seven of his cuts since the restart, but doesn’t have a top-10 finish and hasn’t really threatened to contend. He’s been one of the more outspoken players on the lack of atmosphere without fans along with Tiger Woods. His game has been noticeably flat as well.

I’ll start my card in this next range with Webb Simpson at +2000 on Bet365. Simpson has been playing well in recent weeks, finishing sixth last week and third at Wyndham. I also just like to play him on courses where Furyk has had success because I view Simpson in that type of role currently. He doesn’t have the power of the other top players, but the accuracy, iron play and short game is capable of keeping him up with the elites much like Furyk in his heyday. They’ve also both won in Las Vegas and at Harbour Town, and while Furyk never won at Sawgrass like Webb, he had plenty of success, finishing inside the top 5 on five occasions.

Next I’ll also go with Daniel Berger at +2200 on Bet365. Berger has played as well as anyone the past few months, racking up his fourth top-3 finish in the last six starts. Usually, players ride good form in the playoff events, and Berger has been as hot as anyone.

[Bet Daniel Berger now at bet365. NJ only.]

The Midtier

With two guys in the +2000s, my card is usually done, but I’ll make room for one play here in Russell Henley at +8000 on Bet365.

Henley has finished inside the top 10 the last two weeks, and the approach game has been great for months. His putter has finally turned around the past couple weeks, leading to some better results.

[Bet Russell Henley now at bet365. NJ only.]

The Longshots

No longshot outrights again for me this week. There weren’t any players in the triple digits inside the top 5 last week as the cream continues to rise in the playoffs.

But as for top 10 or 20 plays, I imagine Cameron Smith will be quite popular this week. He’s in that 150/1 range and finished third last week in strokes gained: approach. The normal solid short game was simply mediocre, but he managed to finish 18th. If the putting can sync up with the irons this week, he’s poised for a high finish.

Kevin Na and Brendan Steele are also both worth a look in that 175/1 range. The ball striking was solid for both, but the short game was lacking. If this plays as more of a precision track than a bomb and gouge fest, then both could have a decent finish.

The BMW Card

  • Webb Simpson +2000 (1.65 units)
  • Daniel Berger +2200 (1.5 units)
  • Russell Henley +8000 (.41 units)

Total Stake: 3.56 units

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