AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Guide: The 600-1 Longshot to Consider

Feb 07, 2019 10:00 PM EST
Credit:

Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Paul Casey

  • Dustin Johnson (+600) and Jason Day (+900) are the favorites to win the 2019 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
  • This tournament usually features a winner from either the top or bottom of the board, so Josh Perry has a few longshots he thinks are worth a punt.

Rickie Fowler tried his hardest to blow a lead in Phoenix. But in the end, no one was prepared to take the title away from him.

We got close at times with Matt Kuchar, Chez Reavie and Bubba Watson all tying for fourth. Hopefully a few of you added some top 5s with the outright-win bets, but as for me, I only cashed on Kuchar to finish in the top 20.

Moving onto Pebble Beach, which is one of the more difficult tournaments to cap in my opinion. The tournament is spread over three courses and the rounds can stretch into the six-hour range at times thanks to the 156 amateurs also taking part in the event.

Couple that with some unpredictable weather and there are a lot of factors that influence the outcome outside of just hitting golf shots.

This is usually one of my lighter weeks in terms of action. We tend to either get a winner under +3000 like Jordan Spieth (2017), Brandt Snedeker (2015), Jimmy Walker (2014) and Phil Mickelson (2012) were. However, two of the past three winners, Ted Potter last year and Vaughn Taylor (2016) came out of nowehere.

My cards tend to feature a few golfers in the mid-tier range, but this tournament just hasn’t produced champions in that range in recent years.

The Course(s)

As mentioned, this tournament will take place on three courses on the first three days with the players all heading to Pebble Beach for the final round.

Pebble is the course everyone is familiar with and the field will play there once over the first three days along with Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill.

All three courses check in at under 7,000 yards, so they’re among the shortest on tour. In good conditions, Monterrey is usually the easiest of the three. But if the wind picks up, Spyglass has more trees that protect it and the track becomes much more playable.

With the lack of distance, the driver plays much less of a role at this event. Instead, it usually comes down to a good iron player who is comfortable putting on bumpy, fast poa annua greens.

The Field

Dustin Johnson and Jason Day are the clear favorites at the top of the board at +600 and +900.

Johnson has two wins here and has finished in the top five in five of the last seven years. Meanwhile, Day has been in the top six four times in the last six years. With all their success however, Day has never won and DJ hasn’t finished in front here since 2010.

They’re the only two players who opened at less than +2000. A group of six including Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood all started behind the favorites between +2200 and +2500.

Dustin Johnson is the favorite at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Credit: Brian Spurlock

The Favorites

If this is one of those weeks where you feel like placing the weekly bankroll on either DJ or Day, I won’t stop you. They both rate out as the best two players for this course.

My concern would be their course draws though. Weather so unpredictable here and with rain and wind in the forecast, it could be easy for either of them to get caught on the wrong course at the wrong time and be at a disadvantage.

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