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Francesco Molinari’s Hot Run Inflating His Betting Value at 2018 PGA Championship


Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

For betting odds and analysis of the top 80 golfers in the 2018 PGA Championship field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds. This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.

Francesco Molinari PGA Championship Betting Odds

DFS Pricing: $9,200 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel

PGA Championship History (2013-2017): T-33, T-58, T-54, T-22, T-2

Odds: +3300 to win, +260 top-10 finish, +135 top-20 finish, -400 to make cut, +275 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: -400 to make cut

Best Matchup Value: Molinari (+120) over Rickie Fowler (-150)

Tee Times: 2:15 p.m. ET (Thursday); 8:50 a.m. ET (Friday)

>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time golf odds and track your PGA Championship bets.

The Outlook

I don’t think anyone envisioned the summer of 2018 belonging to Francesco Molinari, but here we are. After backing him in wins at the Open and Quicken Loans, Molinari and I are good for life, but I can’t advise backing him here. The numbers on him have crashed into the 20s with good reason. He fell back to earth a bit at the Bridgestone, and the run of finishing in the top two of every tournament may be at an end.

The Metrics

Here’s how Molinari ranks in the PGA Championship field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-13th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: 1st
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 3rd
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: T-76th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 16th

Want more PGA Championship coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 80 best golfers in the field.

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