PGA TOUR Odds & Betting Picks: 8 Pebble Beach Props & Matchups To Bet
Tom Hauck/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Doug Ghim
- Betting props and/or matchups for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? We've got you covered.
- Find odds and our analysts' favorite betting picks outlined below, including top finish bets and more.
And just like that, the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am looks wide open. That’s because Dustin Johnson, who opened as a prohibitive +400 favorite to win the tournament, withdrew on Monday afternoon, leaving a pretty substantial hole at the top of the betting board.
With DJ out, Patrick Cantlay is now the betting favorite at +750 and there’s a bit of a drop between Cantlay and the next group, which starts with Daniel Berger and Paul Casey at +1400.
A field like this is ripe for chaos and that should lead to a very interesting betting week on the West Coast.
Here are our favorite props and matchups at Pebble Beach:
Andrew Putnam Top-40 Finish (+150)
This is hardly the sexiest prop you’ll ever see, but there’s nothing wrong with a simple, smart, plus-money wager. Fresh off a week during which he finished T-7 and posted exactly zero bogeys in 72 holes, Putnam is still severely undervalued at this one.
I’m not ready to think he can replicate those numbers and that result, but as a guy who does play some of his best golf on his native West Coast, there’s a better chance that he’ll cash this bet than the odds suggest.
He’s one of these momentum-type players we like to target, the kind of guy who tends to be a bit streaky, which makes him a bit more predictive than many others.
Kevin Streelman Top-20 Finish (+163)
I’ll double down on Streelman here. As I’ve mentioned already this week, he may benefit as much as anyone from the tournament ditching Monterrey this year. It tends to be an easy course where players rack up birdies and he just hasn’t taken advantage.
Despite that, he’s finished inside the top-20 five straight times and will face an unusually weak field for this event.
Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish (+410)
I went back and forth with Ghim and Reavie as my longshot, and I’ll look to take both through the finishing positions. Ghim has always had the talent in him to compete at this level and he’s finally showing some results dating back to a solid fall swing.
While he doesn’t have the course history at Pebble, with two missed cuts, it is a course that should fit his game. I really like the number on Ghim to finish in the Top 20 this week with his solid form and a new opportunity to figure out Pebble Beach.
Phil Mickelson Top-10 Finish (+450)
This week I am looking at a former major champion with immaculate course history who’s best days are long behind him. No, it isn’t Jordan Spieth (and yes, his best days are long behind him) it’s Phil Mickelson!
In his past five trips to Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pro-Am, Phil has four top-three finishes including a win (2019). While Phil is certainly past his prime, his game isn’t much different than what it was in 2019 and I see no reason why he can’t compete here. Pebble Beach is a very short course meaning Phil can hit his signature wedge shots into the small greens rather than a long iron.
While he may miss yucking it up with the celebrities in the pro-am, I still like Lefty to get himself in the mix this week.
Scott Piercy Top-20 Finish (+400)
Piercy is coming off back to back missed cuts, so we’re getting a decent number here on a track he’s had a ton of success at over the last few years.
He hasn’t even been that bad despite missing his last two cuts, as he sits 31st in this field in total strokes gained over his past eight rounds. He posted top 20s at the RSM, Bermuda and the Shriner’s back in fall swing, so it’s not like he’s that far removed from playing decent golf either.
His history at Pebble reads 18th, 10th, 20th the last three years and I like getting 4/1 here and hoping his familiarity with the course gets him back on track.
Kevin Streelman (+120) vs. Will Zalatoris
On our Action Network podcast this week, my new pod partner Justin Ray of the 15th Club sang the praises of Streelman at Pebble, reeling off stats to show how and why he’s been so proficient at this tourney over the past several years.
There are only a handful of courses where the short-hitting Streelman can still be a major factor each year, but as the shortest course on the schedule, Pebble is certainly at the top of that list. Throw in the fact that players will have three rounds on the famous course this week instead of the usual two and I think that could be a huge benefit for him.
Nothing against Willy Z., who’s a tremendous ball-striker, but I think the plus-money is a sneaky-strong play here.
Kevin Streelman (-118) over Rickie Fowler
As I mentioned in my pick of Streelman to win, I really like his form and fit this week at Pebble Beach. I am definitely bullish on Streelman, but this play is equally against what I’ve seen from Rickie over the past several events.
He has been out of sorts in several aspects of his game and there simply isn’t there to expect him to make the weekend much less compete to the level I expect from Streelman at Pebble Beach.
I’ll happily eat a little extra juice for a matchup I really like this week.
Francesco Molinari (-106) over Si Woo Kim
After Si Woo Kim’s impressive win at The American Express he missed the cut at The Farmer’s. A down week after a PGA TOUR win is nothing new and at times even expected. However, he followed that missed cut with a 50th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open while losing 2.3 strokes off of the tee.
If Si Woo sprays it at Pebble Beach he is going to get himself in serious trouble and may have to deal with a minor body of water called the Pacific Ocean.
Si Woo is a talented player but he has his spots, and I don’t see this as one of them. Molinari is my pick to win this week and getting him as a slight underdog to Kim here is great value.
Scott Stallings (-106) over Michael Thompson
Stallings pops up at a few tournaments every year for a big finish, and Pebble Beach is one of those events. His rolling numbers are all pretty solid at the moment, ranking 25th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green as well as 13th on Approach both over his past 24 rounds. He missed the cut here last year, but prior to that went third, seventh, 14th.
Thompson has been hit or miss at this event over the years and I do not trust him as a favorite. Take the slight value on Stallings.