Golf Odds & Picks: 5 Longshots & Sleepers To Bet for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Scott Stallings
- Betting the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Find odds and picks below.
- Our analysts detail why Harold Varner III, Scott Stallings and others are among their favorite longshot bets.
And just like that, the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am looks wide open. That’s because Dustin Johnson, who opened as a prohibitive +400 favorite to win the tournament, withdrew on Monday afternoon, leaving a pretty substantial hole at the top of the betting board.
With DJ out, Patrick Cantlay is now the betting favorite at +750 and there’s a bit of a drop between Cantlay and the next group, which starts with Daniel Berger and Paul Casey at +1400.
A field like this should create some chaos and that could lead to someone coming from the clouds and getting a win this week.
Here are our favorite longshot bets for Pebble Beach:
Harold Varner III (+7000)
There are plenty of worthy sleeper candidates at decent odds, though none who stand out as a slam-dunk selection. In the end, I went with HV3 for a combination of reasons.
The first is that his ball-striking was among the best in last week’s field in Scottsdale. The second is that I just think he’s overdue for a serious title contention after a long stretch of solid performances.
A missed cut last year in his only previous start at this event should rightfully leave us a bit skeptical, but I’m willing to take my chances here.
Scott Stallings (+10000)
It’s tough to pick just one sleeper this week, but Stallings grabs my attention a lot — especially when he’s on the West Coast.
Stallings has had a solid run of results at Pebble Beach and is coming off a decent week in Phoenix. He’s also a solid iron player who puts up decent numbers putting on poa.
We often think of him as more of a longer hitter, but he tends to benefit from clubbing down on shorter courses. He’s recorded five top-10s over the last two years at Pebble Beach, The Valspar, Barracuda, Travelers and Sanderson Farms — none of those events are played on bomber’s courses.
Chez Reavie (+9000)
I went back and forth in this range this week as I think there is a good bit of value down the board. I chose to go with the course history of Chez Reavie who seems to always show up at Pebble Beach.
He’s made the cut in four of the last five years at this event, including a runner-up finish in 2018. Reavie was also in the running down the stretch at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach before ultimately finishing third.
He doesn’t have a lot to lean on to start the season as he hasn’t been able to put many consecutive strong rounds together of late, but that’s never seemed to matter to him coming into Pebble and with this watered down field he offers plenty of value.
Kyle Stanley (+10000)
Stanley has been putting on a ball-striking clinic of late, gaining 4 strokes on approach at Torrey Pines and another 5.2 last week in Phoenix. While his 36th-place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open was unspectacular, he did so while losing 4.6 strokes putting. Stanley isn’t a good putter (that may be an understatement), but he is certainly capable of putting to field average on a good week.
With Monterey Peninsula being ousted from the course rotation this year (the easiest of the three), I expect a higher than usual winning score. If the conditions play difficult, I like Stanley even more. His two career wins have come with winning scores of -15 (2012 Waste Management Phoenix Open) and -7 (2017 Quicken Loans National) so this may be an event that sees a winning score in that range.
I’ll take my chances with the superb ball-striker on a second short golf course.
Brandt Snedeker (+10000)
The two-time winner at this event should not be 100/1 regardless of form. I get he’s been atrocious of late, but he’s at least shown some sign of life, making the cut and finishing 32nd last week at the WMPO. We know he can still win a putting contest against anyone in the world and on Sunday he gained 2.16 strokes on approach. That’s more than enough for me to chance him at these odds.
I’ll happily trust his short game to carry him at a track he adores, and even if you have trepidation of him winning, you can get him +800 to top 10. Let’s turn back the clock.