Sanderson Farms Championship Sleeper Picks: Our Favorite Longshot Bets
Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cameron Percy
The PGA TOUR’s swing season is the time for longshots.
The fields during the fall swing may not feature the same amount of starpower or get the same amount of media attention that the bigger tournaments get, but ask any avid golf and they’ll tell you that there’s some serious value to be had at tournaments like the Sanderson Farms Championship.
We’ve already seen two triple-digit golfers (Stewart Cink and Hudson Swafford) win swing-season events. Will we see another this week?
Here are our favorite longshot bets at the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship:
Cameron Percy +10000 ($10 bet wins $1,000)
Each of the two non-major winners in the 2020-21 season so far were 200/1 pre-tourney, according to golfodds.com, so there’s some definite benefits to combing through the big prices at these fall events and looking for value.
I won’t go quite that deep, but Percy is the type of player we’re looking for this week — he ranked an impressive 22nd in strokes gained on approach shots this past season, has a pair of top-20s in his last four starts at this event and owns top-25s in his last three starts that he’s finished (there was a WD, too) over the past two months.
Patton Kizzire +17500
Patton Kizzire is another guy I like to target when the TOUR shifts back to Bermuda surfaces. He’s normally right around average with the putter elsewhere, but on Bermuda, he gains about a half-stroke per round.
Kizzire has quietly brought the approach game back around, gaining strokes in that category in each of his last three events prior to a made-cut at Corales (which doesn’t deploy shot-tracking data).
Lucas Glover +7000
This number is a touch short of a typical longshot, but it’s just too good of a price to pass up without discussing. Other books have Glover as low as +4500 and he comes in off of a strong 17th-place finish at the U.S. Open two weeks ago. He was able to dial in his ball-striking at Winged Foot as he gained 3.8 strokes on the field in that category, and was white hot with his putter.
The putter almost always tells the story for Glover, and he hasn’t lost strokes on the greens at the Country Club of Jackson in any of his last three appearances.
I’m taking the good number and a player that seems to be rounding into form, during a time of year where Lucas Glover usually thrives.
Kristoffer Ventura +8000
Ventura was 45-1 last week in a very similar field. A few players were added at the top of the board but I still think getting him at almost double the price this week is great value.
Country Club of Jackson should be a much better fit for Ventura as he is a South Florida resident and plays a lot of his golf on Bermudagrass greens.
He fits the mold of bombers who can putt as he ranks 5th in this field in driving distance, 9th in Strokes Gained: Off the tee, and 1st in Strokes Gained: Par 5, while being the 20th best putter in the field on Bermudagrass greens (all stats over the past 24 rounds).
Ventura is exactly the type of player I am targeting and I love the discounted price we are getting this week.