Sobel’s Sentry Tournament of Championship Matchup Bets: Expect a Bounce-Back from DJ in Round 3

Sobel’s Sentry Tournament of Championship Matchup Bets: Expect a Bounce-Back from DJ in Round 3 article feature image
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Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: PGA golfer Dustin Johnson.

  • The Sentry Tournament of Champions continues on Saturday at Kapalua.
  • Jason Sobel has three more matchup picks for the third round.

I’ve got a good buddy who refers to anything triple-bogey or worse as “a incident.” (Yes, he’s a rocket scientist.)

Well, Andrew Landry had “an incident” en route to losing our matchup bet on him against Patton Kizzire in the second round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but Gary Woodland and Charles Howell III came through for a 2-1 day.

With most of the big names bunched near the top entering the weekend, I see more matchup value in the first half of the tee times. Let’s get to it.

Season Record: 7-7-1 (+0.44 units)
Dustin Johnson (-165) over Webb Simpson (+145)

Johnson’s streak of 32 consecutive rounds par-or-better came to an end Friday, due in part to a double-bogey on the fourth hole after he hit the wrong ball that was pointed out by a volunteer marshal.

I don’t see that happening again.

In fact, I think DJ goes low — something in the 64 or 65 range — to cash this ticket.

Aaron Wise (-155) over Brice Garnett (+135)

First-timers often don’t fare too well at this tourney and neither of these guys are changing that notion so far. Wise, however, is showing some signs of figuring it out, jumping from 74 in the first round to 71 on Friday.

I can see him knocking another three shots off his score in the third frame to win this matchup.

Billy Horschel (-135) over Scott Piercy (+115)

This will be a reunion for the Zurich Classic partners, who only got into this tournament based on their shared victory last year. Horschel carried the team that week and he should play the role of alpha dog once again, if his ball-striking can kick into gear.

This is more of a Piercy fade, though, as he’s never figured out Kapalua; in 13 career rounds, he owns just two sub-70 scores.