Tony Romo at the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship: Can He Shoot Under 77.5 in Round 1?
Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tony Romo
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
- On Wednesday, he looks at the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship & the prop bet for Tony Romo's Round 1 score.
One day, Tony Romo will be in the NFL Hall of Fame. Not soon, but in 20 years or so, Romo will have contributed enough to the sport as a quarterback and especially broadcaster to warrant a place in Canton.
Romo’s just one of those guys who seems to excel at whatever he does.
Except golf. Romo is not good at golf.
Sure, he’s better than me.
But he’s not better than the average professional golfer. He’s not better than even the typical below-average pro golfer.
In fact, whoever the worst golfer is who regularly plays on the PGA Tour — Romo’s almost certainly worse than that guy.
And yet he’s playing this week at the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship.
I’m heavily betting against Romo via a number of wagers: One of my favorites is his prop for Round 1 score.
Tony Romo Round 1 Score for the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship: Over/Under 77.5
- Over 77.5: -110
- Under 77.5: -110
I don’t know much about golf, but I know enough to tee up this prop and smash it as far as I can with my driver.
I fully expect Romo to be one of the three worst golfers in the field this week. Probably the worst. At one sportsbook, he’s -130 to finish last.
In the FantasyLabs PGA Models, he’s the only golfer with a 0.0% chance of winning the tournament or finishing in the top 10 (based on his Vegas odds).
At the Westgate Superbook, Romo is +1000000 to win. That’s six zeros. That’s literally a Kevin Malone special.
I’d like $10 on those odds. If someone gives you to 10,000 to one on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
By hanging that +1000000, the Westgate is literally saying to everyone, “Yes, we’re willing to risk losing $10 million just so we can get $1,000 from the 10 random Romo truthers drunk enough to bet $100 each.”
Romo’s not going to get even close to the top of the leaderboard this week.
I ran 320,000 Byron Nelson sims. Not only did Romo not win in a single one of them, he also never cracked the Top 15. I give him a 1.7% chance of making the cut, and that’s after cranking up his projected variance to levels I’ve never used. https://t.co/1tKv5WChFk
— Rufus Peabody (@RufusPeabody) May 7, 2019
Of all the golfers in our Models, Romo is easily last in a number of long-term metrics.
- Adjusted round score: 79.6
- Greens in regulation: 45.8%
- Putts per round: 31.8
- Scrambling: 38.6%
- Eagles per tournament: 0
- Birdies per tournament: 3
- Par 4 scoring: 9.5
- Par 5 scoring: 2.5
Romo has one factor in his favor, and it’s not insignificant: He knows the course well. It’s his home course. He’s a member of the Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
So Romo will have a home-field advantage of sorts.
But I really doubt that will matter. Romo has attempted numerous times to qualify for the AT&T Byron Nelson: Each time he’s been unsuccessful. He’s playing in the tournament now only because of a sponsor’s exemption.
In other words, Romo’s not good enough to play in this event. He’s famous enough to play in it, and he might help increase the attendance numbers, but he’s not good enough for it.
When he talks about preparing for the tournament, Romo sounds like a guy who’s not looking to compete.
- “It’s going to be fun. See if I can live up to the improvement I hope I’ve made.”
- “It’s a work in progress. I love competing, but I also love improving and getting better and seeing how good you can be.”
- “There’s different success as far as the way you think of it. It’s all about improvement.”
Romo’s right: There are different kinds of success. For instance, there’s the philosophical success he’s going to have in just getting to play in a PGA event. And then there’s the financial success I’m going to have in betting against him.
Both are real — and they’re spectacular.
This year and last year, while the best golfers in the world competed against each other in the WGC-Dell Techologies Match Play, Romo played (again, via a sponsor’s exemption) in the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship.
In neither tournament did he come close to making the cut.
- 2018: 159 strokes in two rounds (second-worst score in field)
- 2017: 159 strokes in two rounds (worst score in field)
Over the past five years, 3.4 golfers per tournament have shot higher than 77.5 in Round 1 at Byron Nelson.
Romo isn’t a professional golfer, and he’s never qualified for a PGA Tour event.
If he doesn’t have one of the worst Round 1 scores this week, it will be a minor miracle.
As a lifelong Dallas Cowboys fan, I love Romo — but I’ve learned not to expect miracles from him.
I’d bet over 77.5 strokes all the way to -150.
The Pick: Over (-110)
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