Sobel’s Tour Championship Matchup Bets: Back Good Ball-Strikers in Round 3

ATLANTA — Whatever you think about the FedEx Cup — the system, the format, the scoring, the way we got here, any of it — it’s tough to argue with a leaderboard that’s given us Brooks Koepka leading by a stroke over Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas entering the weekend.

Saturday’s third round should be a fun watch, but I’m staying away from the top of the board in matchups and digging just a little bit deeper.

Patrick Cantlay (-125) over Paul Casey

Simply put, Cantlay might be my favorite player to target in weekend matchups — and his scoring average backs it up.

Even though Cantlay is ranked 16th and 14th, respectively, over the first two rounds, he’s first on the PGA Tour in third-round scoring average (and 10th in the final round). Casey cashed easily for us yesterday, but I think Cantlay has another low Saturday in him to leap back toward the lead.

Adam Scott (-145) over Matt Kuchar

Only one player in this week’s field is putting better than Kuchar so far. Only a few are striking it worse.

We could expect some regression on both ends, but I like fading him in favor of Scott, who’s once again been solid enough to get into a nice position without seriously contending.

Another solid round and we’ll all be celebrating this H2H win like this:

Tommy Fleetwood (-150) over Webb Simpson

Let’s not overthink things: Fleetwood is hitting the ball very well and getting almost nothing out of it so far.

Simpson is hitting it very poorly, but scrambling around to keep his score respectable.

This is the kind of matchup we like to target. Fleetwood clearly has more gas in the tank right now than Simpson.