Sobel’s WGC-Mexico Matchup Bets: Ride with Rory in the Final Round

Sobel’s WGC-Mexico Matchup Bets: Ride with Rory in the Final Round article feature image
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Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rory McIlroy

  • Jason Sobel lists his three favorite matchup bets for the WGC-Mexico Championship final round, including Rory McIlroy vs. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka vs. Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama vs. Gary Woodland.

At one point during the third round of the WGC-Mexico Championship, Dustin Johnson’s lead was six. At another point, it had been whittled down to just two.

By day’s end, it was right in between, as he holds a four-stroke advantage over Rory McIlroy.

Our final-round matchup bets start there, as this could be just what Rory needed to finally post a solid Sunday.

We’ll also hit on Brooks Koepka vs. Rickie Fowler (11:10 a.m. ET) and Hideki Matsuyama vs. Gary Woodland (12:10 p.m. ET).


Rory McIlroy over Dustin Johnson (-105)

1:10 p.m. ET

Anyone who’s watched McIlroy in the lead — or close to it — in the past 11 months has noticed that his game crumbles on Sunday afternoon like a rookie who’s never been in that limelight before. But I think this situation is just what he’s needed.

He’s in contention, obviously, but being four strokes behind Johnson, Rory will be forced to step on the gas pedal right away against a fellow elite-level playing partner.

By the same measure, DJ has yet to really have a setback, with a 10th-hole double-bogey in the third round and no other squares on the scorecard through 54 holes.

I don’t know if McIlroy will catch him, but I think this is the perfect formula for a better final round than we’ve witnessed lately.

Brooks Koepka over Rickie Fowler (-110)

11:10 a.m. ET

Let’s see … so far this week, Koepka has posted scores of 73-70-69. You like that trend? It’s only going to continue in the final round, when he goes into total DGAF mode and throws up a 65 that has us adding his name to the growing list of very strong Masters candidates.

That’s not to say Fowler can’t similarly go low, but nobody in golf can out-DGAF Koepka on a Sunday afternoon when he’s out of it and might as well show off by making a ton of birdies.

Hideki Matsuyama over Gary Woodland by -0.5 (+115)

12:10 p.m. ET

Speaking of trends, there’s a continuing one occurring with Matsuyama right now. It started last week, when he was 2-under through 36 holes, but posted a score three shots better during the weekend rounds.

And it’s continued this week, as he played the first two rounds even-par, but bettered that with a 4-under 67 on Saturday.

I like Matsuyama to go just as low, if not lower, on Sunday to beat Woodland by at least a stroke or two.