2019 Black Eyed Susan Odds, Preview: Vulnerable Favorites Should Leave the Door Open

2019 Black Eyed Susan Odds, Preview: Vulnerable Favorites Should Leave the Door Open article feature image
Credit:

Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports.

  • The 2019 Black Eyed Susan Stakes takes place on Friday at 4:48 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network.
  • This field should be pretty open thanks to a pair of vulnerable favorites.
  • Adam Staple previews the Black Eyed Susan and provides some advice for a Pick 4 at Pimlico.

The Black Eyed Susan Stakes (4:48 p.m. ET, NBCSN) does not carry as much weight as the Kentucky Oaks does, but it still features a very competitive field of 3-year-old fillies. That may sound like a damper, but the truth is this is a great race for value seekers and Black Eyed Susan Day is sure to feature some big payouts.

That includes a $300,000 guaranteed 50-cent Pick-4, so there really is a lot to look forward to at Pimlico.

Black Eyed Susan Stakes Odds, Picks

  • No. 2 Off Topic, 8-1
  • No. 3 Ulele, 15-1
  • No. 4 Cookie Dough, 3-1
  • No. 5 Our Super Freak, 20-1
  • No. 6 Always Shopping, 4-1
  • No. 7 Brill, 5-1
  • No. 8 Point of Honor, 5-2
  • No. 9 Las Setas, 15-1

This race typically doesn’t produce huge payouts and I don’t think we’re going to find any bombs in this bunch but there’s definitely vulnerable favorites in No. 8 Point Of Honor and No. 4 Cookie Dough.

Let’s start with Point of Honor. She finished a disappointing fourth in a six-horse field in her last start at Gulfstream Park.

In fact, the comment line on her form described the performance as “flat.” It’s hard to make excuses when that’s the perception of your effort. She isn’t facing a deep bunch here, but her she was expected to move up to elite status in her next start and all we got was “flat”. Her connections say she’s training great but there are sharper horses in this field that I’d rather look at.

Cookie Dough is a nice filly but she is very one dimensional. She must be on the lead and must have everything go her way. When she’s been pressured at all, like she has been in her last two starts at Gulfstream, she gave way.

She faces a field of at least three speed-ballers: No. 3 Ulele, No. 5 Our Super Freak and No. 9 Las Setas. Cookie Dough won’t have any time to relax with pressure coming right out of the gate. Asking this young filly to beat this field away from her home track is simply too tall an ask.

I’ll be anchoring my card with No. 6 Always Shopping. She has steadily improved in her last three starts as she continues to stretch out in distance. She also keeps her regular rider, Manny Franco, who has two wins and a close second with her. She’s one of only two fillies in the race who have run this distance before and she shows that she has no problems handling the added distance.

Her times haven’t been eye-popping, but her last three races were at Aqueduct which, historically, is a very slow track. Her running style is coming from just off the pace and with the heated pace we should expect here, it will set up perfectly for a horse just sitting behind as the early speed quits by the time they hit the stretch.

Always Shopping could end up being a bit of a “bandwagon horse” and could take some late money, but she should be a solid play down to as little as 3-1.

My favorite under-the-radar horse in this race is No. 7 Brill. She is hardly a “true longshot,” but she should go off around 6-1, which would be an excellent pay day for this race.

She’s a California-based filly who has had some excuses in her last three starts. As a 2-year-old last year, she faced the very tough Bellafina, who was on the top of her game. Brill tried to make a move in the turn going up the rail and was shut off, finishing a distant third. It was a promising move, though.

She came back off a layoff, going only six furlongs at Oaklawn and should have been an easy winner but was blocked and was forced to steady late, finishing second. In April, she finished third in a very deep field at the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn. In that run she tracked the leaders the entire way and was simply out-kicked to the finish. She crossed the line third by less than two lengths.

I think Brill will have a much less troubled trip here and could steal this race at a nice price if Always Shopping doesn’t fire.

Black Eyed Susan Picks: No. 6, 7, 8

The Jim McKay Turf Sprint (Race No. 12) is the second leg of the Pick-4. As long as the weather stays true to the forecast, which doesn’t call for any rain, this should be a quickly run event on the Pimlico grass. No. 3 Bound For Nowhere — the morning-line favorite — scratched so this race is wide open.

There’s not a lot of dominating speed in this field, but there is an interesting longshot in the field. No. 9 Completed Pass (8-1) just missed in a 5.5-furlong stakes last time out at Laurel as he was just nipped at the wire. That was his first try on grass and while he has zero turf breeding, he’s just plain fast and shortening the distance and a change of jockeys should help him.

I’ll also be keeping an eye on No. 2 Tricks to Doo (6-1).

Race 12 Picks: No. 2, 9


The Allaire Dupont Distaff Stakes (Race No. 13) is a two-turn race for older mares. The standout here is No. 6 Golden Award (5-2). She had done nothing wrong before throwing a major clunker in her last time out at Keeneland in the slop.

That was a disappointing effort for sure, but let’s give her the benefit of the doubt and say she didn’t like the wet track. This is a much softer bunch than she faced that day in Kentucky.

An interesting play here is No. 4 Mylady Curlin (4-1). While she hasn’t run in a stakes before, she’s in top form with two wins in her last two starts. She should be a factor here. Also throw in No. 5 Another Broad (7-2) off her solid stakes win last time out.

Race 13 picks: No. 4, 5, 6

The last race of the day is the most challenging. It’s a $25,000 non-stakes race on the grass. We may have to go pretty deep to find a winner here.

I’m actually going four-deep on this run. It’s a terrible field with just a handful of standouts, so we should not overlook any of them. My top choice is No. 7 Wolverette (6-1). Her trainer has been trying to get her back on the grass since last September. The race has come off the grass in her last five starts and she didn’t show much in any of those runs, but she’s only lost her last three turf tries by a combined 4.5 lengths.

She gets Pimlico’s leading rider, Trevor McCarthy, who should give her as honest a trip as she’s had in a while.

Race 14 picks: No. 4, 7, 11, 12


All odds current as of 12 p.m. ET and courtesy of TwinSpires.com