Freedman: Bet Against Bodexpress for 2019 Preakness Stakes

May 18, 2019 05:31 PM EDT
Credit:

Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bodexpress

  • The 2019 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 18 at 6:48 p.m. ET on NBC.
  • Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite matchups for the race.

Today is the 144th Preakness Stakes: Aside from the Super Bowl, and March Madness, and the Kentucky Derby — this is our Super Bowl.

I know nothing about horses … but there’s no way I’m not going to have at least a little action on the race, right?

After perusing our Preakness Stakes content and exhaustively researching all 13 of the horses for the past five minutes, I’ve decided to bet against Bodexpress in a few head-to-head matchups.

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2019 Year-to-Date Record

798-596-43, +122.23 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 388-289-7, +49.55 Units
  • NHL: 115-106-9, +11.99 Units
  • MLB: 48-54-13, -11.07 Units
  • Golf: 9-12-2, -0.70 Units
  • NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
  • Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units

2019 Preakness Stakes: Owendale vs. Bodexpress

  • Owendale: -145
  • Bodexpress: +115

Owendale sounds like the name of a dilapidated nursing home — or maybe the name of a small neighborhood in Biff Tannen’s alternate 1985 — but the horse has won two of its past three races.

On top of that, Owendale has a “show rate” of 80%: He has finished top-three in four of his five races. His most recent win at the Stonestreet Lexington was an impressive come-from-behind victory.

Bodexpress, meanwhile, sounds like the name of White Goodman’s workout routine, and the horse is winless in his four races.

I’d bet on Owendale down to -160.

The Pick: Owendale (-145)

2019 Preakness: Win Win Win vs. Bodexpress

  • Win Win Win: -145
  • Bodexpress: +115

One of these horses literally has the word “Win” in his name in triplicate, and the other doesn’t. Pretty simple.

At the Kentucky Derby, Win Win Win had the superior finish (9th vs. 13th), and he won the Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs in January.

And Win Win Win also has the superior show rate: In his five races, he’s finished in the top three an impressive four times (80%). Bodexpress has been top-three in two of four races (50%).

I’d bet on Win Win Win down to -160.

The Pick: Win Win Win (-145)

2019 Preakness: Signalman vs. Bodexpress

  • Signalman: -130
  • Bodexpress: +100

In his Preakness power rankings, Sean Zerillo highlights Signalman as a horse with the potential to finish third in the trifecta.

And that seems reasonable: In his seven races, Signalman has shown six times (85.7%). He’s won twice.

In comparison, Zerillo has this to say about Bodexpress: “He’ll still be a maiden on Sunday morning. Bodexpress will get his one day, but I don’t think he’s going to get the right setup here.”

Although Signalman opened +3000 to win the race and actually had longer odds than Bodexpress at +2000, Signalman is now actually +1800 at one sportsbook.

I won’t bet him any lower than -130, but I do prefer Signalman to Bodexpress.

The Pick: Signalman (-130)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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