2019 MLB Prop Bets: 10 Home Run Over/Under Picks


Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: J.D. Martinez.

  • Last year, 89 out of 129 MLB home run over/unders went under.
  • These totals are beginning to hit the market for the 2019 season, and I've already hit 10 unders.
  • Included are several of last year's hottest players and breakout stars, but there are reasons why each of them won't be able to go over their posted total this year.

If you like betting on MLB props and like nerdy statistics, than this article is for you! Prepare yourself for nearly 1,400 words of baseball dorkiness that will put a normal person to sleep.

With home run totals hitting the market, I am very excited. I spent some time perusing the list today and bet on ten myself — all unders. Yup, that’s right. If you like rooting for overs, this article isn’t for you. Last year, of 129 home run totals that were posted, just 40 went over. Injuries, overreactions from the previous season and lofty expectations all lead to value being on the under in a big way. I may hit a couple overs at a later date, but for now, here are the 10 unders that I bet right away.

J.D. Martinez Under 38.5

J.D. Martinez wowed in his first season with the Red Sox. He actually wowed in that half season with the Diamondbacks, too, so he’s on a nice little stretch of wowing.

Last year, I vividly recall scrolling through all of the player props seeing which juices had changed the most. In other words, which ones were being hit the hardest. Martinez’s home run total was 38.5 last year, and the juice on the under was all the way up to like -170 or -180 … I guess my memory isn’t wicked vivid.

Anywho, he went over. The bettors were wrong.

Martinez hit 43 home runs in 649 plate apperances over 150 games. For the second straight year, his HR/FB rate hovered right around 30% — a damn high number. His three full seasons with the Tigers all featured HR/FB rates right around 20%.

With Martinez not being too much of a fly ball hitter, I expect his home run total to drop. I’d be surprised if he was able to post another staggeringly high HR/FB ratio for a third consecutive season, and you also have to account for the fact that he essentially played a full season last year, which isn’t a given every year.

Trevor Story Under 35.5

Trevor Story is coming off the best season of his career, which will be a running trend in this article. You know what they say — buy low, sell high. I didn’t follow that age-old adage with crypto, but I do with baseball investing.

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