Zerillo’s MLB Betting Preview: Longshots and Sleepers to Bet for the 2020 Season

The 2020 MLB season presents a unique betting opportunity for baseball fans, as the heightened variance provided by a 60-game schedule will likely lead to some unexpected end of season results.

Before a 162-game baseball season, for example, it is relatively easy to determine which starting pitchers have both the potential and opportunity to throw enough innings and accumulate enough strikeouts to even put themselves in a position to contend for the Cy Young award.

But over a 60-game schedule, top of the rotation innings-eaters like Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom will have fewer opportunities to separate themselves from the pack. Innings limits are off the table for younger arms, and a dominant 12-start run from a mid-rotation pitcher or 30 lights-out innings from a reliever could put an unexpected pitcher at the forefront of the Cy Young discussion. 

Any missed time – COVID-19 related or otherwise, will crush the hopes for any futures tickets. So if you are taking a shot on some awards bets or home run leaders, spread your money around and keep any individual ticket relatively small.

Additionally, the shortened schedule presents the opportunity for an unexpected division winner or wild card team to make a playoff run. In 2019, for example, 20 of the 30 MLB clubs would have made the playoffs over a select 60-game stretch of the season – and in a 37% sample of a typical baseball season, you can expect to see, on average, between two to three unexpected playoff teams.

Let's dive into the big plus-money bets that I'm eyeing for 2020, broken down by World Series wagers, divisional wagers, home run leader props, and awards winners for the Cy Young and MVP in both leagues.

World Series Longshots

Alongside my updated 2020 MLB projections, I also provided my World Series value plays, compared to the currently listed odds at PointsBet.

I have a World Series futures wager on each of the six teams in bold, below – three in the AL and three in the NL – after recently adding futures on both the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays – who I project to have the strongest bullpens in each of their respective leagues.

In 2019, the Padres' bullpen led the NL with a 4.08 xFIP, while the Rays finished second in the AL with a 4.13 xFIP.

I'm not at all opposed to a wager on the Cleveland Indians – who have won at least 56% of their games for each of the past four seasons -, but I would skip any super longshot World Series wagers on the Royals or Marlins, who we will touch on in the divisional section.

Eight of the nine teams listed above – all except the Reds (2.9% World Series probability) – are also viewed as World Series value bets by FanGraphs’ ZIPS.

If you prefer ZIPS, you can bump up the Athletics (+0.2%), Indians (+0.5%), Padres (+0.6%), and Rays (+0.2%), and downgrade the Diamondbacks (-1.2%), Pirates (-0.1%) and White Sox (-0.8%).

Given the format, neither my projections nor ZIPS thinks that any team should be shorter than +931 (9.7%) to win the World Series.

I would bet the Rays down to +2000, play the A's, Indians, Reds, and White Sox down to +2500, and take a share on either the Diamondbacks or Padres at +3500 or better.

Divisional Longshots

After comparing listed divisional odds to my 2020 projections, the following teams currently offer value in the divisional betting market this season, split up by longshots (listed odds greater than +1000) and other value (listed odds less than +999):

With the shortened schedule, I'm now willing to bet longshots like the Blue Jays, Marlins, Royals, and Pirates, as divisional winners – but I don't see any of those teams as actual World Series contenders if they do get to the postseason; which is why I bypassed their championship odds.

ZIPS projects pretty similar divisional chances for all four teams in a 60-game season, putting the Blue Jays at 5.1% (+1.1%), Marlins at 3.4% (-0.1%), Royals at 5.8% (+1.3%), and Pirates at 6.7% (+2.2%) – which makes any one of the four a viable longshot bet for small stakes.

Conversely, ZIPS only likes the Rangers to win the AL West 8% of the time, and that disagreement is enough for me to lay off their divisional odds. However, there is another way that I prefer to bet the Rangers – which I will cover in the MVP longshots section, below.

I put a quarter unit on Toronto and one-tenth of one unit on each of Kansas City, Miami, and Pittsburgh to win their respective divisions; either embrace the potential craziness of the 2020 season or get out.

I don't expect any of those teams actually to win those divisions. Still, they each offer actionable value in a shortened season, and if any one of the four bets comes through, it will generate more than ten units of profit.

Every teamExcept for the Orioles, every team is truly in the fight from opening day this year:

I'm a bit higher on the Rays' divisional chances than ZIPS is (34.1%, -5.4%), and those projections also like the Diamondbacks NL West chances (-8.7%) less than I do, while preferring the Padres (+1.5%) a bit more.

I have divisional wagers on each of the eight teams highlighted in the table above – but while I have substantial investments in the A's, Reds, and White Sox, and their odds have each improved with a shorter schedule, I'm not super keen about betting any of them at their current odds; take a World Series outright instead.

No team saw their divisional chances decrease more than the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees as a result of the shortened schedule -which is what makes taking a shot against each one of those teams so attractive – and the Diamondbacks at +1000  is the best divisional bet left on the board, in my opinion.

They underachieved by three wins relative to their Pythagorean record last season, despite getting fewer than 100 games out of their cleanup hitter, David Peralta (career 116 wRC+), and they made substantial upgrades this offseason by adding Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, and Starling Marte.

The Snakes have one of the more complete major league rosters, and they did well to reload, rather than rebuild, with those Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke trades.

Home Run Leader Longshots

I previewed the field and provided my early wagers for the 2020 MLB home run leader in late November.

At the time, based upon odds at the Westgate, I bet the following hitters:

• Giancarlo Stanton (+2000)
• Nelson Cruz (+8000)
• Miguel Sano (+10000)
• Franmil Reyes (+10000)

To my knowledge, the Westgate refunded all player prop bets -but Cruz (+6000), Reyes (+8000), and Sano (+8000) all remain actionable at the Westgate at their current prices – which are each higher than the remainder of the market. Khris Davis (+6000) is also an appealing price at the SuperBook; he was +4000 in November.

I managed to lock in another half-unit share on Giancarlo Stanton at +2000 – he was banged up during spring training but should be healthy after the late start, and I like his chances to stay healthy over the shortened eight-week schedule.

Updated Steamer projections have Stanton tied atop the league with Mike Trout and Pete Alonso with 16 home runs apiece, just ahead of Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, and Bryce Harper (15).

Stanton's anticipated rate of one home run per 12.5 plate appearances easily paces the group – Gallo is the next closest at 14.1, and Steamer has Stanton doing all of his damage in just 46 games – projected to play seven fewer games, on average, compared to the other five players. I made his preseason odds +1250 for a 162-game season.

In addition to Stanton, I currently have action on three other players to win the 2020 home run crown:

• Yordan Alvarez +2200
• Rhys Hoskins +5000
• George Springer +8000

Before a 162-game season, I set their fair odds at +4200, +10000, and +6200 respectively – so Springer is the best value bet in my estimation. But all three players move up my board in a shortened season.

Like Stanton, Springer struggles to play a full 162 games – after missing at least 20 games in four of his five full major league seasons – and his power metrics are potentially improving too.

Springer increased his barrel rate from 8.9% in 2018 to a career-high 14.3% last season, while also pulling the ball a career-high 37.8% of the time (33.9% in 2018). He was on pace for 51 home runs throughout 162 games, and will undoubtedly have more opportunities than most to pad his home run total in 2020, given the extra plate appearances he receives in the Astros' leadoff spot. 

His Cuban teammate, Alvarez, was an electric slugger as a rookie, combining for 42 doubles and 50 homers between Triple-A and the major leagues; posting a 1.067 OPS over 87 games in his AL rookie of the year campaign:

Alvarez and Hoskins will both benefit from the universal DH rule, and the behemoth cleanup-hitters should be able to stay in the lineup for the vast majority of their 60-game seasons. 

Hoskins looked the part of a future MLB home run leader in 2017, after smashing 18 homers through his first 50 MLB games, but his barrel rate has dropped off substantially from that debut (13.5% in 2017 to 11.4% in 2018, and 9.7% in 2019) while his strikeout rate has steadily increased (from 21.7% in 2017 to 24.5% last season).

Hoskins has some of the best raw power in the majors and hits a ton of long flyballs – ranking in the top six for average flyball distance over each of the past two seasons – he just needs to improve his plate discipline and find more barrel consistency.

He has already proven that he can go on a binge over a short stretch of baseball and hit roughly 20 home runs throughout 60 games, you just need to catch lightning in a bottle and get some of those flyouts to turn into homers:

MVP Longshots

For additional information on the criteria for how MVP award winners are selected, check out my 2020 MVP betting preview from February.

In short, in the past 16 years, pitchers have won just two MVP trophies, while outfielders and corner infielders have won the award 75% of the time. Additionally, each of the past seven MVPs in the AL and each of the last twelve MVPs in the NL has finished in the top three in WAR.

While OPS remains the most highly correlated metric for MVP winners, defensive metrics are becoming increasingly important in deciding the award.

I initially selected Juan Soto (+1200) for the National League and Matt Chapman (+2500) for the American League as my lone 2020 MVP futures at the time.

However, given the shortened schedule, there is now significantly more potential for a longshot to take home the award. Mike Trout is no doubt the best player in baseball, but his advantage, like that of the Yankees or Dodgers relative to their peers, dissipates with fewer games to prove his statistical dominance.

In a two-month season, a single two-week cold streak for either the Angels or Trout could cause his 2020 MVP candidacy could go up in smoke.

While I would still recommend betting Juan Soto down to +1000, or Matt Chapman down to +2000, the following players also caught my attention.

• American League
  • Joey Gallo (+6600)
  • Austin Meadows (+6600)
  • Yasmani Grandal (+6000)

Why bet the Rangers at +1600 to win their division, when they have the worst projected group of position players in baseball per WAR, outside of the Orioles and Marlins, with Gallo as their only standout player?

To win the award, Gallo likely needs to lead the majors in homers – so I'm not interested in taking a short price on him to win the home run title – while continuing to play above-average outfield defense.

The big man has made significant strides over five seasons in the majors, posting a career-best swinging strike rate, walk rate, OPS (.986), wRC+ (144) and wOBA (.401) over 70 games in 2019 – before his season ended in July due to a broken hamate bone. Had he stayed healthy and if the Rangers continued on their wild card run, there's no doubt that he would have received substantial MVP considered.

Again, why bet the Rangers to win the division (+1600) or bet on Gallo to win the home run title (+1200) when he likely needs to put in an MVP performance – at quadruple those odds – for their club to achieve those heights this season.

The wagers on Chapman, Grandal, and Meadows align with my divisional bets on the A's, White Sox, and Rays.

Chapman finished seventh in AL MVP voting in 2018, and sixth last season while winning the platinum glove as the AL's best defensive player on both occasions.

Meadows, a 2019 all-star, finished 14th in AL MVP voting despite playing only 138 games due to a short IL stint. He should continue to improve in his age-25 season and is one of few players in that deep lineup who project for everyday at-bats.

Grandal finished 15th in NL MVP voting in 2019, and he was the first significant free-agent signing this offseason – before the White Sox also added Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Steve Cishek, Nomar Mazara, and Edwin Encarnacion to their roster.

Grandal is one of, if not the best defensive catcher in baseball, and even though he struggled over the second half of last season, his first two months of production (52 games, .276 average, 12 HR, 30 RBI, .910 OPS) had him at the forefront of the early MVP discussion.

The narrative is already built-in too if Grandal can turn the young White Sox staff into a group of winners.

• National League
  • Starling Marte (+10000)

In the NL, the Diamondbacks new center fielder is the only MVP longshot bet that intrigued me.

Starling has never received an MVP vote – playing in the anonymity of Pittsburgh for the entirety of his eight-year career – and he has only made one all-star game (2016), so he may seem like a curious choice for a late-career breakout.

Like some other players that I have already targeted in these prop categories, Marte usually misses a couple of weeks throughout a full 162 game season – averaging 121 games played over the past four years – but I think he can stay healthy for two months and help the Diamondbacks to make a playoff push.

He has always seemed a bit mercurial, and his on-field performance has fluctuated from year to year, but I think he has just wanted to play for a contender.

More intriguingly, however, Marte moves from one of the worst hitters parks to one of the best, and his power metrics are improving at the age of 30 – posting a career-best 8.2% barrel rate in 2019, with a .304 expected batting average that ranked in the top 4% of MLB hitters.

From June-August of last season, Starling launched 17 homers and stole 16 bases in 78 games, while posting a .940 OPS in the second half of the season. If he can repeat that production – prorated out to roughly 12 homers and 12 steals over 60 games – while helping the Diamondbacks to an NL West crown, Starling can put himself into the MVP discussion.

While he returned negative defensive metrics for the first time in 2019, Marte's sprint speed (29.0 feet per second) increased and remained in the top 8% of the league.

Cy Young Longshots

I provided my 2020 Cy Young betting guide and wagers in early March.

In short, note that WAR, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, wins, IP, and FIP correlate most strongly with Cy Young winners.

At the time, I recommended betting on Walker Buehler (+750) and Trevor Bauer (+5000) in the NL, with Shane Bieber (+1600), Charlie Morton (+2500), Lucas Giolito (+2500), and Jesus Luzardo (+30000) in the AL.

All four pitchers, except for Buehler, have shortened substantially as a result of the 60-game season, and from that group of six, I would only still bet on Giolito (+1800) and Luzardo (+6000) at current odds.

Giolito, baseball's former No. 1 pitching prospect, made some mechanical adjustments last offseason and combined that with some changes to his pitch mix and sequencing; thereby refining his command, optimizing his approach, and allowing his whiff rate to explode; ranking near the top of the strikeout-minus-walk rate leaderboard (24.3%, 6th).

His 15% swinging strike rate ranked sixth in MLB, just behind Jacob deGrom (15.4%) and his improvement only continued as the season went on:

• 1st Half: 3.94 xFIP, 3.16 K/BB, 20.6% K-BB%
• 2nd Half: 3.28 xFIP, 5.68 K/BB, 29.1% K-BB%

Luzardo is the second-coming of Johan Santana, and though he wasn't expected to face any innings limit in 2020, that is no longer a concern with the shortened season.

If you don't see me tweeting, "Happy Jesus Luzardo day" before each one of his 2020 starts, make sure that I am OK. I have been all-in on this prospect since I watched him dominate Double-A competition in 2018.

The soon-to-be 23-year old was dominant in the minor leagues, going 14-7 with a 2.53 ERA while averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, with 5.4 strikeouts per walk across all levels.

• National League
  • Yu Darvish (+2000)
  • Josh Hader (+10000)

The only two futures that I recently added are two of my favorite bets for the upcoming season.

Yu Darvish is +2500 to win the NL Cy Young at MGM – and about half that price at seven other books where I checked to compare odds.

The righty only pitched in eight games in 2018, missing time with a variety of ailments, and he struggled during the first half of the 2019 season (5.01 ERA, 2.27 K/BB). Still, he was dominant over the final four months of the year, and particularly in the second half (81.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 7 BB, 118 K), walking 15 batters over his final 19 starts.

We'll finish with my single favorite wager for this season, and I think the most logical +15000 bet I will ever make in my life – on Josh Hader to win the NL Cy Young.

The southpaw suffered some ill-timed blown saved last season, including a two-run ninth-inning lead in the NL Wild Card game to the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals, and even though his FIP regressed from 2.23 to 3.10, all signs point to him being just as dominant last season as he was in 2018.

His xFIP saw a less-dramatic rise, climbing from only 2.06 to 2.36 – still a significant difference from his 2017 debut (3.66 xFIP) – while his SIERA only moved from 1.70 to 1.78 (2.99 in 2018).

Hader was seemingly the victim of negative home run variance, as his home run per flyball rate finished at 21.4% – up from 14.5% – which is a significant factor for a flyball pitcher (career 51.6% flyball rate).

His statcast metrics also show some warts – with an increased exit velocity (+4.3 mph) and a hard-hit rate (+10.2%) compared to 2018.

But Hader also had the best first-pitch strike rate (63%), popup rate (21.4%), strikeout rate (47.8%), walk rate (6.9%), and swinging-strike rate (22.7%) of his career – improving each of those metrics over 2018.

The Brewers have a relatively thin starting staff. Still, with Corey Knebel back in the fold to take over the closer's role, Craig Counsell may feel freed up to use Hader more aggressively in the middle innings – which could increase his workload after seeing a dropoff in 2019 (from 1.48 innings per appearance in 2018 to 1.24 in 2019).

Given his strikeout rate, and high-leverage usage, Hader can rack up enough counting stats over 30 innings to make himself noticeable on the wins, saves, and strikeout leaderboards – and if he can post dominant ratios as he did in the first half of 2018 (1.50 ERA, 0.79 WHIP) or 2019 (2.25 ERA, 0.63 WHIP) while guiding the Brewers to a playoff spot, Hader can make the case that he impacted a higher percentage of games than any other pitcher this season.

As he enters his arbitration years, it might also be wise for the cost-conscious Brewers to use Hader aggressively this season and maximize his value before trading him to a club with deeper pockets.

Recommended Longshot Wagers

Below are the longshot wagers that I would currently place for the 2020 MLB season, with my cutoff for the lowest odds that I would place those bets provided in parentheses.

Concerning unit sizing, I would risk enough on each ticket to win ten units or more.

I will have a line-shopping piece coming out next week, which will cover World Series odds, divisional odds, win totals, and some of these props, but always be certain – no matter what you are betting on – to shop around at multiple sportsbooks for the best number.

World Series

• Arizona Diamondbacks (+3500)
• Chicago White Sox (+2500)
• Cincinnati Reds (+2500)
• Cleveland Indians (+2500)
• Oakland Athletics (+2500)
• San Diego Padres (+3500)
• Tampa Bay Rays (+2000)

Division Winner

• NL East: Miami Marlins (+20000)
• NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates (+10000)
• NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks (+1000)
• AL East: Toronto Blue Jays (+3500)
• AL Central: Kansas City Royals (+10000)

Home Run Leader

• Giancarlo Stanton (+2000)
• Yordan Alvarez (+2000)
• Rhys Hoskins (+5000)
• Nelson Cruz (+6000)
• Khris Davis (+6000)
• George Springer (+8000)
• Miguel Sano (+8000)
• Franmil Reyes (+8000)

MVP Winners

• American League
  • Matt Chapman (+2000)
  • Yasmani Grandal (+6000)
  •  Joey Gallo (+6600)
  • Austin Meadows (+6600)

• National League
  • Juan Soto (+1000)
  • Starling Marte (+10000)

Cy Young Winners

• American League
  • Lucas Giolito (+1800)
  • Jesus Luzardo (+5000)

• National League
  • Yu Darvish (+2000)
  • Josh Hader (+10000)