2020 MLB Futures: Early Bets and Projected Odds for World Series, Most Home Runs and Pitching Wins

Credit:

Patrick Gorski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lucas Giolito

Nov 27, 2019, 07:37 PM EST
  • Check out Sean Zerillo's early 2020 MLB Futures preview with analysis on bets for the World Series, most home runs and most pitching wins.

As the offseason hot stove heats up, I begin to lock in future wagers for the following MLB season – even though MLB regular-season win totals, which is my favorite betting market, won’t open until February.

2020 World Series odds have been available for several weeks, and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas also has odds for both the 2020 Home Run Title and Pitching Wins leader.

Here is everything that I have bet so far for 2020:

2020 Regular Season Home Run Title

Since 2009, the MLB home run leader has averaged 48.6 homers:

Giancarlo Stanton (+2000)

Giancarlo Stanton is the only player projected to hit more than 50 home runs in 2020; six clear of the competition (Mike Trout, 45):

I didn’t intend to bet Stanton when I walked into the Westgate. Still, his odds have doubled after he opened as the +1000 listed favorite, which demanded that I immediately recalibrate my approach.

The 30-year-old was limited to 59 at-bats in 2019, missing time due to various ailments, including a biceps strain, shoulder injury, and knee injury.

Stanton won the 2017 home run title running away as a +750 favorite.

Though he was with the Marlins, here is how that spray chart (59 homers) would have looked at Yankee Stadium:

A healthy Stanton should pace the majors in home runs, but he has only played more than 123 games in just four of his 10 MLB seasons (2011, 2014, 2017, 2018).

As the projected favorite, I would bet Stanton down to +1500, which would still be double that of his 2017 odds, but I think you can find more substantial value on the board.

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