Bryce Harper’s Absence Moving Nats-Padres Line and Total
Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports
- After news broke of Bryce Harper’s night off, the Nationals moved from -144 to -135.
- Eighty-two percent of the betting tickets were on the Nats before the news.
- The total also went down across the market, dipping from 7.5 to 7 in some spots.
The Washington Nationals are the most popular bet of the night vs. the Padres (9:10 p.m. ET), but the public bettors who have already loaded up on them just caught a bad break.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 9, 2018
Given Harper’s recent struggles against lefties, the Nats opted to rest the star slugger for the first time this season.
Within a couple minutes of the news, the Nationals moved from -144 to -135, which corresponds with a 1.57% drop in implied probability (59.02% to 57.45%). About five minutes afterward, it had fallen to -133. Before the news broke, a whopping 82% of bettors were on Gio Gonzalez and the Nationals so it will be interesting to see where that settles in by gametime. (Check out live bet percentages on our public money page.)
This news also impacted the total, as the number dropped from 7.5 to 7 or moved the juice across the market.
The Nats lineup will be facing Joey Lucchesi, who has been holding opponents to a low exit velocity as of late. His DFS stock likely just bumped up a bit with this news, as well.