Lack of Trout Moving Line Against Halos
Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports
It’s not often you see Mike Trout getting a day off, but when it does happen, lines will move.
Angels 5/13 – https://t.co/ODGJ7YfvqB Cozart 3B Calhoun RF Upton LF Pujols DH Simmons SS Valbuena 1B Kinsler 2B Young CF Maldonado C
— FantasyLabs MLB (@FantasyLabsMLB) May 13, 2018
At 12:54 p.m. ET, the Angels lineup was posted and much to bettors’ surprise, Chris Young was in center field instead of Trout.
At that time, the Angels were -175 with Shohei Ohtani facing off against Fernando Romero of the Twins. Sixty-seven percent of bettors were backing the Angels’ two-way star, too.
Within two minutes of the news, Los Angeles moved from -175 to -165. Just a few minutes later, the line was down to -158, which is an implied probability drop of 2.4%. This may seem low, but star players in baseball don’t move lines nearly as much as their football or basketball counterparts, where key players can move the spread upwards of five points.
Just the other day, Bryce Harper rested in San Diego and the Nats’ implied probability dropped 1.57% within a several minute clip following the news.
The total also moved a bit, as the dropoff from Trout’s bat to Young’s is obviously going to mean less runs over a large sample. The juice moved from 7.5 (u-110) to 7.5 (u-118).