Sharp bettors had a profitable Thursday, cashing two of their three total plays. When looking to get down on an Over/Under, wiseguys are especially selective. They know that, unlike moneyline underdogs (which only have to win 45% of the time to turn a profit), they must cash totals at a 52.4% or more rate in order to make money (assuming standard -110 juice). So all key factors must be on the same page: percentages, line movement, bet signals, wind direction and umpires. If not, sharps lay off and focus on moneylines, which is what they’re doing tonight.
After analyzing Friday’s stacked 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including two that start at 7:10 and one at 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET
Milwaukee Brewers (+108) at New York Mets
7:10 p.m. ET
The Mets (10-1, +8.38 units) have been the most profitable team for bettors this season, so of course the public is riding them once again. However, despite receiving 73% of bets, the line hasn’t moved in New York’s favor. It’s actually fallen -120 to -118. Sharp signals on the road dog caused this combination of reverse line movement/line freeze. Wiseguys hit the Brewers +125 at SIA and the pros at Pinnacle hammered Milwaukee +115. This overload of smart money caused Milwaukee to fall from +111 to +108 since opening, even though they’re only getting 27% of bets.