Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hitting a Pair of Dogs and Totals
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Sharp bettors cleaned up on Thursday. They went 3-0-1 with their plays, cashing on the Mariners (31% bets, +115 to -101), Rays (41% bets, +127 to +122) and the Sox/Jays contrarian Over 8 (45% bets, 68% dollars). As always, wiseguys are sticking to the flat betting approach as they look to post another winning night heading into the weekend.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:07, 7:10, 8:10 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET
Texas Rangers (+131) at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
Texas is 9-17 and Toronto is 14-10, so naturally the public is all over the Jays at home with Stroman on the mound. Not the sharps. Texas is only getting 28% bets but 67% dollars, indicating big smart money is on their side. Wiseguys have been crushing the Rangers all day, causing market-wide reverse line movement in their favor (+141 to +131). The Rangers also fit a profitable Bet Labs system: Bad Team After Win.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (+120)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Marlins have pulled off the two biggest upsets of the season so far (+295 over the Yankees and +347 over Kershaw and the Dodgers). Still, the public wants nothing to do with them. More than 70% of bets are on road favorite Colorado, yet the Rockies have fallen from -145 to -130 since opening. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public bettors a better number? Because sharps have gotten down on Miami, creating big liability. Wiseguys steamed Miami +124 and then Goodfellas hit Miami +115. The Marlins also match the Bad Team After Win system.
Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros Over 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Big pitcher’s duel in this AL West showdown. Sean Manaea (1.23 ERA) is coming off a no-hitter and goes head-to-head with Dallas Keuchel (3.10 ERA). The public sees a high total and easy Under, but the sharps disagree. Nearly 60% of bets are on the Under, yet the total has risen from 8 to 9 across the market. The big dogs have been hammering the Over all day, causing four separate steam and reverse line moves. As Mark Gallant noted, pitchers off a no-hitter historically come back down to earth in their next start, which bodes well for sharp Over backers.
New York Mets – San Diego Padres Under 7
10:10 p.m. ET
The ultimate Pros vs. Joes play. Public bettors see a low total (7) and automatically think it has to go Over. Wiseguys disagree. Nearly 80% of bets are on the Over, but nearly 80% of dollars are on the Under, as big of a bets vs. dollars discrepancy as you’ll ever see. Pro bettors at four different offshore books hammered the Under, with no conflicting plays on the Over. The Under 7 is also juiced up to -121, indicating it may even fall to 6.5. An added bonus: the wind is blowing in at Petco Park.
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Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Clayton Richard (3) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies