Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hitting a Pair of Dogs and Totals

Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hitting a Pair of Dogs and Totals article feature image
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Sharp bettors cleaned up on Thursday. They went 3-0-1 with their plays, cashing on the Mariners (31% bets, +115 to -101), Rays (41% bets, +127 to +122) and the Sox/Jays contrarian Over 8 (45% bets, 68% dollars). As always, wiseguys are sticking to the flat betting approach as they look to post another winning night heading into the weekend.

After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:07, 7:10, 8:10 and 10:10 p.m. ET.

All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET

Texas Rangers (+131) at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 p.m. ET

Texas is 9-17 and Toronto is 14-10, so naturally the public is all over the Jays at home with Stroman on the mound. Not the sharps. Texas is only getting 28% bets but 67% dollars, indicating big smart money is on their side. Wiseguys have been crushing the Rangers all day, causing market-wide reverse line movement in their favor (+141 to +131). The Rangers also fit a profitable Bet Labs system: Bad Team After Win.

Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (+120) 

7:10 p.m. ET

The Marlins have pulled off the two biggest upsets of the season so far (+295 over the Yankees and +347 over Kershaw and the Dodgers). Still, the public wants nothing to do with them. More than 70% of bets are on road favorite Colorado, yet the Rockies have fallen from -145 to -130 since opening. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public bettors a better number? Because sharps have gotten down on Miami, creating big liability. Wiseguys steamed Miami +124 and then Goodfellas hit Miami +115. The Marlins also match the Bad Team After Win system.

Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros Over 9

8:10 p.m. ET

Big pitcher's duel in this AL West showdown. Sean Manaea (1.23 ERA) is coming off a no-hitter and goes head-to-head with Dallas Keuchel (3.10 ERA). The public sees a high total and easy Under, but the sharps disagree. Nearly 60% of bets are on the Under, yet the total has risen from 8 to 9 across the market. The big dogs have been hammering the Over all day, causing four separate steam and reverse line moves. As Mark Gallant noted, pitchers off a no-hitter historically come back down to earth in their next start, which bodes well for sharp Over backers.

New York Mets – San Diego Padres Under 7

10:10 p.m. ET

The ultimate Pros vs. Joes play. Public bettors see a low total (7) and automatically think it has to go Over. Wiseguys disagree. Nearly 80% of bets are on the Over, but nearly 80% of dollars are on the Under, as big of a bets vs. dollars discrepancy as you'll ever see. Pro bettors at four different offshore books hammered the Under, with no conflicting plays on the Over. The Under 7 is also juiced up to -121, indicating it may even fall to 6.5. An added bonus: the wind is blowing in at Petco Park.

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.

For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights

Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Clayton Richard (3) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies

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