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Friday Sharp Report: Pros Getting Down on 4 Big Dogs

May 18, 2018 4:50 PM EDT

Friday is arguably the best day of the week for sharp MLB bettors. Public players are finishing their work week and are more apt to get down on games (specifically favorites and home teams), which leads to increased ticket counts and more contrarian value. Additionally, there are no day games and all games are played at 7 p.m. ET or later, which provides even more time for bet counts to rise.

 

This doesn’t mean sharps double down on Fridays and risk multiple units, it just means that they’re operating with an increased edge. As always, wiseguys stay the course and stick to flat betting.

After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10, 7:35 and 8:15 p.m. ET.

All data as of 2 p.m. ET

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (+155)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Red Legs are the comeback kids of MLB.  After starting the season an abysmal 8-26, they’ve gone 7-3 over their last 10 games. Still, the public wants nothing to do with them, especially with Homer Bailey (1-5, 5.59 ERA) facing Jon Lester (3-1, 2.66 ERA). But wiseguys aren’t afraid. Cincy is getting only 24% of bets but a whopping 79% of dollars. Since opening, the Reds have fallen from +161 to +155, another indication that smart money is on their side. Sharps at Pinnacle and GTBets hit Cincy +156 and +157, respectively, causing market-wide reverse line movement in their favor. The Reds also fit the Bet Labs Bad Team After Win system and are divisional dogs with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005.

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Credit:

Kansas City Royals center fielder Jon Jay Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

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