Friday Sharp Report: Pro Players Hammering Three Dogs
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Starlin Castro and Justin Bour.
Wiseguys continued their winning ways on Thursday, cashing both total plays (Phillies-Dodgers Under 6.5 and Red Sox-Astros Under 9) for a 2-1 day. Now it’s Friday, which is arguably the best day of the week for sharp MLB bettors. Public players are finishing their work week and more apt to get down on games (specifically favorites and home teams), which leads to increased ticket counts and more contrarian value.
This doesn’t mean sharps double down on Fridays and risk multiple units, it just means that they’re operating with an increased edge. As always, wiseguys stay the course and stick to flat betting.
After analyzing Friday's 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 9:40 p.m. ET
Data as of 4 p.m. ET
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (+104)
7:10 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are all over the Mets tonight. New York is getting only 29% of bets, but the line has moved bigly in the Amazin's direction. It opened at Mets +116, got bet all the way down to -107 and then evened out at +104.
Why would the oddsmakers move the line toward New York if two thirds of bets are betting against them? Because sharps got down hard on the Mets at the Greek (+4.5 units), triggering market-wide reverse line movement. New York is also a dog with a high total (9), a profitable spot since 2005.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox (+115)
8:10 p.m. ET
Only true wiseguys bet on the White Sox. They're god-awful (16-37, -16.95 units) and going up against the surging Brew Crew (36-21, +13.32 units), but value is value. Chicago is at home, getting only 19% of bets (but 24% of dollars) and they've moved from +126 to +115.
Sharps at CRIS hit Chicago +126 and then Goodfellas at Sportsbook jumped on the South Siders +130, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. The White Sox are also dog with a high total and an American League team in interleague play, two profitable spots since 2005.
Miami Marlins (+126) at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 p.m. ET
As always, the public wants nothing to do with Miami (20-36). But pro players are taking a shot on the Fish tonight. The Marlins are getting only 24% of bets but 37% of dollars, indicating smart money in their favor. They've also fallen from +140 to +126 since opening, which is notable considering this is one of the most lopsided games of the night. Wiseguys at BetOnline got down hard on the Marlins +129, triggering reverse line movement toward the road dog.
Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.
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