Monday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hammering Two MLB Dogs and Two Totals
Baseball is back! All season long we’ll be highlighting the sides and totals garnering the most professional action. If you’re new to betting MLB or need a refresher, check out this piece for more in-depth baseball wagering tips, strategies and historical analysis.
After examining all percentages and line movement for Monday’s 13-game slate, here are four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 4:10, 7:10 and 10:07 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:00 p.m. ET
Chicago Cubs – Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5
4:10 p.m. ET
The Great American Ball Park is known as a hitter-friendly venue, so of course more than 70% of bets are taking the Over here. Not the sharps. As always, they’re paying attention to factors that public bettors largely overlook. In this case, the weather. The wind is blowing straight in from center. Wiseguys at Pinnacle got down hard on Under 9, then the sharps at JustBet hit Under 8.5. This overload of smart money caused a trio of steam and reverse line moves. The juice on the Under 8.5 is up to -115 at Bookmaker, which signals it may even fall further down to 8.
Baltimore Orioles – Houston Astros Over 9.5
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares seem to be on the same page when it comes to this total, but likely for different reasons. Nearly 70% of bets are taking the Over but it accounts for more than 90% of dollars. Public bettors see a lay up Over with the stacked Houston offense. But wiseguys like the Over because it’s a warm, clear day with the retractable roof open and heavy wind blowing out. Professional players at CRIS hit the Over 9, then wiseguys at Pinnacle hit Over 9.5. These moves are especially meaningful because they come from two of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks with the highest limits.
Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins (+126)
7:10 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes bet split for this Interleague showdown. More than 70% of bets are taking the Red Sox, but the line is moving big toward Miami (+145 to +126). This reverse line movement indicates wiseguy action on the home dog. The Marlins also enjoy Monday’s largest bet vs. dollar discrepancy. The Fish are only getting 26% of bets but 84% of dollars, a sign that the Average Joes like Boston, but the sharps are taking a shot on Jeter’s boys at a decent plus-money payout.
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (+110)
10:07 p.m. ET
In Monday’s most heavily-bet late game, recreational bettors are siding with the Indians as a relatively small road favorite. However, the Angels are receiving the sharp action. Mike Trout and Company are only getting 36% of bets but it accounts for 73% of dollars, a sign of smart money.
Plus, they’ve moved from +115 to +110 since opening, signaling sharp reverse line movement. Why would the books decrease the Angels’ payout if the majority of bettors are on Cleveland? Because they have sharp liability on the Halos.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully-customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
Cover Photo Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Astros teammates Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve celebrate a home-run in a recent game against the Texas Rangers