Monday Sharp Report: Pro Players Hitting Three Dogs
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
We’re entering our second full week of MLB, and two trends have paid off so far for sharp bettors: road dogs and divisional dogs. So far, road dogs have gone 37-41 (47.4%), +10.79 units, while home dogs have gone 22-35 (38.6%), -5.88 units won. Meanwhile, dogs within the division have gone 40-44 (47.6%), +10.28 units, while dogs outside the division have gone 19-32 (37.3%), -5.49 units. This lines up pretty well with their historical performance.
After analyzing Monday’s 13-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 8:10 and 10:15 p.m. ET.
All data as of 4 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Reds (+122) at Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. ET
The public wants nothing to do with the 2-6 Reds, but wiseguys see a buy-low value play betting against Gape Kapler’s Phils. Cincinnati is getting only 32% of bets but 65% of dollars. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy indicates smart money on the road dog. Sharps hit Cincy three separate times. This overload of smart money caused market-wide reverse line movement in favor of the Reds (+135 down to +122).
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (+145)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Astros are a powerhouse, but sharps will be betting against them a lot this season because they’re almost always a massive public favorite with an overpriced line. Tonight is no different. Despite getting 75% of bets, Justin Verlander and the ‘Stros have fallen from -165 to -154, indicating sharp RLM on the Twins. Wiseguys hit Minnesota three times, causing the line to move in their favor.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (+110)
10:15 p.m. ET
The D-backs have been one of the most profitable teams to bet on this season (7-2, +5.79 units), so naturally public bettors are back on the Snake Train tonight. However, despite getting nearly 60% of bets, Arizona has fallen from -135 to -121. Sharps triggered a pair of reverse line moves on the Giants, causing them to fall from +115 to +110.
Notable Reverse Line Movement
- Marlins (36%) +180 to +166
- Padres (35%) +170 to +162
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Thirsty for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder David Peralta (left) celebrates with third baseman Daniel Descalso (right)