Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Eyeing Two Dogs, One Contrarian Over
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Pro players cashed their Mariners-Jays Under yesterday, but struck out with their other three plays. Wiseguys hate losing two units in one night, but they know baseball is the ultimate grinder sport. It’s a six-month season, more than 2,400 games. The ups and downs will be volatile, but the blueprint never changes. Stay the course and think long term.
After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 7:10 and 8:40 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET
Boston Red Sox (+129) at New York Yankees
7:05 p.m. ET
The Yankees have already won the first two games of the series. The public sees CC Sabathia (1.39 ERA) against Eduardo Rodriguez (5.29 ERA) and likes the Bronx Bombers to complete the sweep tonight. However, despite receiving 62% of bets, New York has fallen from -153 to -140. This was caused by wiseguys at Pinnacle steaming the Red Sox +133. Mookie Betts and company also enjoy a profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy — they’re getting only 36% of bets but 49% of dollars. Another cherry on top: Boston is a road divisional dog with reverse line movement and a high total, a profitable spot since 2005.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (+100)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Braves are 21-14 and just swept the Rays. The Marlins are 13-23 and just got swept by the Cubs. The public sees an easy Braves win, but not the wiseguys. Miami is getting only 20% of bets but 42% of dollars, indicating smart money on their side. Despite getting only one in five bets, the Marlins have fallen from +105 to +100. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by wiseguys hammering Miami all across the market, first at the Greek, then ABC, YouWager and SIA.
Milwaukee Brewers-Colorado Rockies Over 11.5
8:40 p.m. ET
A common public mistake is blindly betting an Under because the total is high and blindly betting an Over because the total is low. Average Joe bettors see an 11.5 total and automatically say the Under has to hit (61% bets). But sharps see a contrarian Coors Field Over play (only 39% of bets, but 62% of dollars). Wiseguys at CRIS and Buckeye both hammered the Over 11.5, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. The Over is 538-491 (52.3%, +19.67 units) at Coors Field since 2005. When 45% or fewer of bets are on the Over, it’s 82-65 (55.8%) for a profit of +14.27 units.
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Pictured: Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) celebrates with right fielder Noel Cuevas (56) and center fielder Charlie Blackmon after hitting a three-run home run