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Thursday Sharp Report: Professionals Hitting Two Sides, One Total


Pictured: Kansas City Royals Whit Merrifield is congratulated by teammate Jon Jay. Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports

Pro players swung and missed on Wednesday, losing all three dog and total plays. Seasoned wiseguys are used to the volatility of baseball betting, knowing it’s a long season and there will be good and bad days. But the bad beats, such as the Jays (+106) last night, are hard to stomach. Toronto led, 3-1, entering the ninth before Tyler Clippard gave up four runs, resulting in a 5-4 loss.


After analyzing Thursday’s small eight-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 6:10 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:05 p.m. ET.

All data as of 3:15 p.m. ET

Houston Astros – Cleveland Indians Over 8

6:10 p.m. ET

Sharps have been eyeing this contrarian Over all day. Despite nearly 75% taking the Under, the total has remained frozen at 8. This indicates a reluctance on behalf of the books to drop the line to 7.5 and hand out extra value to sharp Over backers. The juice has also risen from 8 Over -110 to 8 Over -114, another sign of Over liability.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (+113)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Red Sox have taken the first two games of the series, and the public likes them to finish the sweep tonight. But sharps are buying low on Tampa Bay. The Rays are getting only 28% of bets but 49% of dollars, indicating smart money is on their side. They’ve also fallen from +117 to +113, signaling reverse line movement in the most lopsided game of the night. Dogs getting fewer than 40% bets have crushed in May, going 83-84 (49.7%), good for +36.17 units and a 21.7% ROI.

Kansas City Royals (-120) at Texas Rangers

8:05 p.m. ET

The Royals just took two of three from the Cardinals, but the the public wants nothing to do with them. Meanwhile, the Rangers are at home and coming off a pair of big wins against the Yankees. Naturally, 63% are going with Texas at home. However, we’ve seen massive reverse line movement toward Kansas City (+121 to -120). This is notable since they’re getting fewer than 40% bets.

Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.

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