Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Riding Two Dogs, Two Totals

Credit:

Robinson Chirinos and Jean Segura. Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Wiseguys got back to their winning ways on Wednesday. They cashed both dog plays (Mets +138 and Rays +126) en route to a 2-1 day (+1.64 units). Wednesday marked a huge day for contrarian bettors overall. Dogs went 9-6 (+7.56 units) and teams getting fewer than 40% of bets went 6-2 (+8 units). This comes on the heels of an unprecedented two-week stretch when public favorites went an absurd 34-12 (73.9%). Regression baby!

 

After analyzing Thursday’s slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05 p.m., 7:35 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET

Data as of 4:30 p.m. ET


New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+158)

7:05 p.m. ET

The Yankees are 35-17 and the Orioles are 17-39. That’s all the public needs to know. However, despite 72% of bets laying the big minus number on New York, the Yankees have fallen from -187 to -172, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore. Wiseguys at the Greek hit the O’s +163 early, then sharps at SIA hammered Baltimore +155. The Orioles also enjoy a profitable bets (28%) vs. dollars (40%) discrepancy and are a divisional dog with a high total (10.5), a profitable spot since 2005.

Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles Dodgers Under 6.5 

7:35 p.m. ET

Clayton Kershaw makes his long-awaited return to the mound. Typically, the public hammers the Under anytime Kershaw toes the rubber. But not tonight. Because of the low total (and Kershaw coming off the DL), nearly 65% of bets are going Over. However, 70% of dollars are on the Under. The total opened at a juiced-up Over 6.5 -115 at Pinnacle. But now the total juice has flipped to 6.5u -115, indicating Under liability (the next move is likely down to 6). This was caused primarily by wiseguys at 5Dimes steaming the Under 6.5.

Boston Red Sox – Houston Astros Under 9

8:10 p.m. ET

Two premier teams with stacked offensive lineups is an easy over, right? Despite nearly 70% of bets going Over, the total has remained frozen at 9. In fact, the Under is being juiced up from 9u-117 to 9u-120. This juice movement indicates liability on the Under. Early on, sharps hit the Over (likely because the wind is blowing out at Minute Maid Park). However, once it was announced that the roof was closed, sharps crushed the Under 9, hitting it three separate times at 5Dimes and Heritage. The Under is getting only 32% of bets but 49% of dollars, and it matches a profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+176.35 units since 2005).

Texas Rangers (+140) at Seattle Mariners

10:10 p.m. ET

The Rangers have taken two of the first three games in this series. But they’re 24-34 and the Mariners are 33-22. So naturally the public likes Seattle to bounce back and earn the split tonight. Not the sharps. Texas is getting only 29% bets but only 43% dollars and the Rangers fallen from +155 to +140 since opening — two signs of sharp action in their favor. Goodfellas at Pinnacle steamed Rangers +143 early, triggering further reverse line movement toward Texas.

Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.

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