Tuesday Sharp Report: Pro Players Eyeing Two Dogs, One Total
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys have been on an absolute tear of late. Last night they swept the board, highlighted by an epic +203 hit with the Detroit Tigers. Since Friday, they’ve gone 11-1 with their plays, good for more than +12.75 units.
The first month of the season was a struggle for the Goodfellas, with public favorites cashing at a historic rate. But professionals knew they just had to stick to the model and ride it out. Regression was coming. And boy has it come.
In the month of April, dogs getting fewer than 40% bets went 89-137 (39.4%), -6.2 units. So far in May, they’ve gone 55-49 (52.9%), +31.6 units.
After analyzing Monday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:25 p.m. ET
New York Yankees – Washington Nationals Under 8.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper all on the same field. Dingers galore! Over all day, right? Currently 71% of bets are on the Over, but 68% of dollars are on the Under. Sharps have been crushing the Under all day, triggering four steam and reverse line moves at four different books. This overload of sharp action has dropped the total from 9 to 8.5 across the market. The Under 8.5 is also being juiced up to -115, indicating it may fall even further. This Under is also a match for the profitable Bet Labs system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+171.6 units since 2005).
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (+102)
7:05 p.m. ET
Break up the Orioles! They’re still one of the worst teams in baseball (13-28, -13.44 units), but they’ve won five of their last six and their bats are red-hot (58 runs last seven games). The public says they’re due for a loss, but sharps are still on the Birds’ Bandwagon. Baltimore is getting only 25% of bets but 49% of dollars. They’re also receiving sharp reverse line movement. The line opened at Orioles +104. Two added cherries on top for sharp O’s backers: Baltimore is the AL team in interleague play (since 2005 AL teams have dominated NL teams) and the total is high (10/10.5). Historically, high totals benefit dogs.
Texas Rangers (+117) at Seattle Mariners
10:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors love favorites, home teams and teams with better records than their opponents. So of course 65% of bets are taking home favorite Seattle (23-17, +7.45 units) over road dog Texas (16-26, -2.45 units). But sharps see a buy-low opportunity with the Rangers, especially with Seattle missing Robinson Cano (suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s joint drug agreement). The Rangers are getting only 35% of bets but 48% of dollars, indicating wiseguy money in their favor. Also, the line is moving toward Texas (+130 to +117), signaling sharp reverse line movement. Pro players at Pinnacle steamed the Rangers twice (+130 and +119) and wiseguys hit Texas +118.
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