Tuesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Jumping on Four MLB Plays
Starlin Castro. Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys made the most out of a small MLB slate last night, cashing their lone play on the Padres (-108). San Diego was a perfect example of what Pro players look for: low bets (27%) but higher dollars (49%), contrarian in a heavily bet game (19,000 tickets) and reverse line movement (+104 to -108).
Today, Goodfellas see a stacked board bursting with value. They may even make the maiden voyage to Delaware to place their first legal bets outside of Nevada!
After analyzing Tuesday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, including games that start at 7:07 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET
Data as of 3 p.m. ET
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (+142)
7:07 p.m. ET
Toronto checks off all the sharp boxes for pro players. The Jays are contrarian in one of the most heavily bet games of the night. They’re getting only 28% of bets but a much higher share of dollars (54%). They’re a divisional dog at home with a high total (10). And last but not least: they’re receiving a sharp line freeze/reverse line movement (+143 to +142).
Despite the heavy Yankees betting, the line either hasn’t budged or it has moved slightly toward Toronto, indicating Jays liability. Wiseguys at Pinnacle steamed Toronto +152. The Jays also fit the profitable Betting Against the Public Bet Labs system (+170.04 units since 2005).
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians Under 7.5
7:10 p.m. ET
Usually the public hammers the Under when Corey Kluber (2.02 ERA) is on the mound. But with a low total and two stacked lineups going head-to-head, the public is taking the Over, providing wiseguys a rare contrarian Kluber Under opportunity.
Despite more than 60% going Over, the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5, indicating smart money on the Under. Wiseguys at JustBet, Pinnacle and BetOnline all hammered the Under 7.5, causing the line to fall. An added bonus for sharp Under backers: the wind is blowing in heavy from center field.
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (+103)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Rockies are 30-29, have lost four in a row and travel to Cincy to face the lowly Reds (21-39). Naturally, 75% of bettors like Colorado to snap their skid as a short road favorite tonight. However, wiseguys are buying low on Cincinnati. They’re at home and getting only 25% bets but 38% dollars, signaling smart money in their favor.
They’ve also fallen from +111 to +103, which is notable since they’re one of the most lopsided contrarian plays of the night. Sharps at SIA and The Greek hit Cincy +105 and +102, respectively, triggering market-wide reverse line movement toward the home dog.
Miami Marlins (+165) at St. Louis Cardinals
8:15 p.m. ET
The Marlins (20-39) have lost six in a row and nine of their last 10. Today they send Jose Urena (0-7, 4.41 ERA) to the mound against Carlos Martinez (3-2, 1.62 ERA) and the Cardinals (32-25). The public sees an easy Cards win, but not the wiseguys.
Despite 81% of bets taking St. Louis at home, the Cardinals have fallen bigly from -220 to -180. Sharps at Pinnacle steamed Miami twice (+201 and +169), triggering massive reverse line movement. The Fish also enjoy a profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy (19% bets but 53% dollars), indicating smart money in their favor.
Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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