Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Anderson, Greinke Do Battle in Miller Park
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chase Anderson. Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Bravo to Jack Flaherty yesterday, as not only did he tie a Cardinals rookie record with his 13 strikeouts yesterday while picking up his first major-league victory, he also paced our winning Phillies-Cardinals Under 8 bet. For that, I salute you. It’s on to a new week now, however, so let’s try to start it right.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 30-18-2, +9.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Phillies-Cardinals Under 8, Nola vs. Flaherty (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Zack Greinke (3-2, 3.46 ERA) vs. Chase Anderson (3-3, 3.97 ERA)
For the second consecutive Monday, I’m going after the opener of a Diamondbacks-Brewers series. Last week, you may recall, we came a run off as the result of a horrific bad beat involving a pinch-hit, two-out, two-run inside-the-park home run with two outs in the ninth inning off the bat of light-hitting Tyler Saladino. Hopefully this play can make up for that heartbreaker in Arizona, as the two clubs get set to meet for their final series opposite one another in 2018.
On the bump, it’ll be two starting pitchers going at it against their former employers. In the case of former NL Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke, he didn’t spend that much time in Milwaukee over the big picture, wearing a Brewers jersey for just one-and-a-half seasons, but he did have a notably successful tenure there, going 25-9 in 49 starts.
Greinke’s stint with the Brew Crew is mostly remembered for his perfection at home as he literally never lost a game at Miller Park while a member of the Brewers. In fact, in his 23 starts there over 2011 and 2012, he was a perfect 15-0. For his career, Greinke has made 27 starts (and one relief appearance) in Milwaukee, en route to posting a 3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .227 BAA and 203/42 K/BB ratio in 172.2 innings.
We’ll be relying on that apparent familiarity he has with this venue for this under bet, as well as Greinke’s string of nice pitching this month. In his three May starts, he’s allowed just one run while pitching into the sixth inning or later in each. His presence on the mound will also get dead-bat backup catcher Jeff Mathis into the lineup, which is always a plus for an under.
Even aside from Mathis, this Arizona offense has been struggling mightily as of late, having scored two runs or fewer in seven of its last nine ballgames. Unsurprisingly, the Diamondbacks dropped eight of those games. That could play into the hands of Anderson, who will be taking on the only other team he’s ever pitched for when he was in the Diamondbacks rotation for two years before joining the Brewers in 2016.
Anderson is coming off a rough two-start stretch that saw him yield nine runs over 10.2 innings, but fortunately for us, he’s had a relatively long break since then. He developed a bout of “food poisoning” before his last assignment — convenient because it was at Coors Field and Anderson has endured bad results there over his career — so he’ll be entering this one on plenty of rest. That actually can bolster our chances, as Anderson has actually pitched fairly better on six or more days of rest (8-6, 3.48 ERA) compared to the usual four days for his regular turn (19-16, 4.13 ERA) in his five years in the big leagues. Something like that can be crucial in helping a guy get back on track.
The 30-year-old also seems to enjoy facing his ex-teammates. That’s evident based on the fact that in four career meetings with the D-backs, Anderson is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 29/7 K/BB ratio in 24 innings. Combine that with Arizona’s slumping lineup, and it’s reasonable to believe Anderson can chip in something useful here. Thus, we have my under play for Monday evening.
Play: UNDER 8 (-120)