Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Nola, Flaherty To Meet in Series Finale

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Nola, Flaherty To Meet in Series Finale article feature image
Credit:

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola.

Ouch, our second bad beat of the week in last night’s Dodgers-Nationals Under 7 bet, as plenty of strange oddities occurred (Rich Hill leaving after two pitches, LA’s late bullpen collapse, Sean Doolittle’s blown save) to cost us. Now it’s just about salvaging the week and ending it with a win.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 29-18-2, +8.8 units

Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Nationals Under 7, Hill vs. Scherzer (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


 

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
2:15 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Aaron Nola (6-1, 1.99 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (0-1, 2.87 ERA)

If not for Max Scherzer, there’s a good chance we would be hearing about the possibility of young Aaron Nola being in the conversation regarding who would start for the National League in this year’s All-Star Game.

Yes, I know that’s still a little less than two months away but that’s just how terrific the former No. 7 overall draft pick has been in his fourth major league season. Nola is second in the NL in wins (six), fourth in ERA (1.99), and second in WHIP (1.99). Additionally, opposing batting orders have mustered just a .216 batting average off the 24-year-old righty.

He’s also been notably consistently, pitching into the seventh inning or later in each of his last six outings — all of which registered as a quality start. A big reason why Nola has been going deeper into games is because he’s issuing a career-low 1.99 BB/9.

 

Up to this point, the under is 6-2-1 in Nola’s nine starts this season. He figures to have a good shot at securing another one today given the groove he’s in right now, as well as his history versus St. Louis. In three career meetings with the Red Birds, Nola is 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .147 batting average against, while accumulating 21 K’s in 19.1 innings.

His counterpart this afternoon, Jack Flaherty, is also a former first-round draft selection — 34th overall — from the 2014 Draft. Except with this right-hander, he’s just starting to do more than get his feet wet at the big-league level.

Flaherty will be making just his ninth career start — fourth this season — but to me, he’s already made strides and shown enough early on this year that would lead you to believe he can continue churning out solid pitching.

There’s also the extra bonus of Flaherty receiving an extended opportunity for the first time, as Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright both could be out awhile. In his limited action thus far, the 22-year-old doesn’t have a win yet, but he has logged a 2.87 ERA across 15.1 innings.

Flaherty’s also been punching out nearly one batter per innings this season, continuing a prowess for strikeouts he exhibited in the minors: recording a 11.65 K/9 mark in five starts at Triple-A Memphis.

With this under bet, you’re definitely going to want to wait to see if the line inflates to 8. If that happens, that’s when you should instantly get your action down. Even if it stays at 7.5, it’s still my over/under wager for today.

Play: UNDER 7.5/8