Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping First Game of Dodgers-Giants Doubleheader
© Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Ouch, just a really tough loss to eat last night, as we had our White Sox-Royals Under 9 bet at 4-2 in the bottom of the seventh (and even one or two of those runs should not have been on the board). Unfortunately, chaos would ensue, as a passed ball brought home the seventh run, before Tim Anderson proceeded to make an awful error with two outs that would have ended the inning. Instead, the game was evened up from that misplay, and in extra innings, the White Sox put us away with multiple runs in the top half of the 11th. It’s not good to dwell on those, however, so let’s just move on to Saturday.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 18-7-2, +10.5 units
Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Royals Under 9, Lopez vs. Duffy (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants | O/U: 7.5
4:05 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Walker Buehler (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Chris Stratton (2-1, 2.32 ERA)
The Dodgers and Giants will be playing two today at AT&T Park, but it is the opener has caught my eye in being worthy of a wager on the over/under.
Specifically, the under for Game 1 of this doubleheader looks like the bet to make from this jam-packed Saturday slate. Let’s review the starting pitching matchup.
The first thing that jumps out is the presence of top prospect Walker Buehler, who is getting set to make his second career start. I am a big fan of this 23-year-old right-hander, with the thinking that this is someone who is absolutely going to be a legitimate front-line starter for years to come. He certainly exhibited why many feel this way based on the results in his first start this past Monday.
Pitching against the Marlins, Buehler recorded five excellent shutout innings, yielding four hits, three walks and striking out five. We figure to get more Ks than that this afternoon, as the Giants aren’t used to facing a righty. In fact, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Giants have faced 15 southpaw starters in their first 25 games, a lot of whom rely on breaking balls.
Buehler is a sharp contrast to that, having ridiculous 98-plus mph heat at his disposal. It should also help that the Giants own the fourth-lowest team OPS (.667) in baseball. And remember, they might be without a key starter or two in the batting order — with this being the first game of a doubleheader following a night game — seemingly making it even more difficult this afternoon to scratch out some runs.
Stratton doesn’t possess the same type of heater as his counterpart in this assignment, with his average velocity sitting in the low-90s, but he can still be useful in helping secure this under bet.
Three years into his MLB career, the righty has displayed some encouraging consistency. In his first season in San Francisco’s rotation, he went 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 10 starts in 2017.
This season, he’s 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA through his first five starts. Two of those came opposite these Dodgers, and Stratton held his own, limiting them to five total runs in 10.1 innings. The most striking takeaway from Stratton’s performance up to this point has been the fact that he has not yet allowed a home run in 31 innings.
Los Angeles — which should also be down at least one or two key position players based on the start time and last night’s conclusion — has a challenging enough time as it is going yard. The Dodgers have slugged 22 homers, tied for third-fewest in the National League. Thus, that could play into Stratton’s advantage.
Get your bet in on Under 7.5 as soon as you can, as it’s possible the line shifts down to 7.
Play: UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Pictured above: Giants pitcher Chris Stratton