Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Taillon, Santiago Wrap Up Season Series


Pictured: Jameson Taillon. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Highlights

  • The Pirates’ Jameson Taillon has been noticeably better in his career as a starter in day games.
  • Hector Santiago’s 8.23 K/9 rate gives him hope for bouncing back after a lukewarm start to the season.

While we got the expected quality outing from Noah Syndergaard, we were done in on last night’s bet by a pretty bad showing from Jaime Garcia opposite the worst offense in baseball against lefties. Let’s just move on to Wednesday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 27-16-2, +9.1 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Mets Under 7.5, Garcia vs. Syndergaard (loss)

Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | O/U: 8

12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network)

Probable Pitchers: Hector Santiago (0-1, 5.60 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.08 ERA)

This will be my fifth over/under bet involving Taillon, after nailing three of the first four — all unders. And that’s what I’m looking at again this afternoon from pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

I’ve mentioned it a bunch before and I’ll do so again: I’m very high on Taillon and believe he has the ceiling of a perennial All-Star ace. The confidence in this bet once again relies on his powerful right arm.

He’s making his way back after having to exit his last start, which he left because of a cut on his finger. Before that, he was dominating, and I don’t think a cut on his finger is going to derail the momentum that he’s been building since his poor outing against Detroit on April 25.

We’ll also appreciate that he’s working during the day today. Taillon has been notably better in his daytime starts (8-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .287 BAA) compared to his night outings (7-13, 4.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .303 BAA) thus far in his career. Just overall, I expect him to keep trending up again, and this looks like a favorable spot for him to continue that.

Taillon will be facing off with left-hander Hector Santiago, who hasn’t looked great in his pair of starts thus far, but I think this is a veteran guy with potential to become a stalwart in an unstable White Sox rotation.

Santiago is a few years removed from his best work when he was with the Angels. However, if there’s any hope in the eight-year veteran returning to that form, it’s in his strikeout ratio. He’s registering 8.23 K/9, his highest mark since 2013 and considerably superior to his past two seasons in which he had fallen off.

The Pirates have very much of a “B” lineup drawn up today, too. Right away, you’ll notice dead-bat Max Moroff at the top of the batting order, and we also get Elias Diaz behind the plate along with Sean Rodriguez. In this particular assignment, Santiago is capable of churning out something useful for an under as high as 8 in a National League park.

PLAY: UNDER 8 (-110)

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