Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Yovani Gallardo’s Perfect ‘Over’ Record Continue?

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Yovani Gallardo’s Perfect ‘Over’ Record Continue? article feature image
  • Over bettors (5-0) have seen green in every one of Yovani Gallardo's starts this season, but Gallardo pitches well in Texas.
  • Cleveland's Mike Clevinger has been dominant on the road, and in afternoon games.

Last night’s Giants-Athletics Under 7.5 bet turned into quite the adventure. It looked like the game would wrap up 3-2 in the ninth after a swinging strike three, but the ball got away from catcher Josh Phegley, and after controversial RBI double, things were suddenly very uncomfortable. Luckily Oakland dodged the bad beat by winning it with a knock in the bottom of the 11th. Now on to Sunday…

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 64-41-3, +18.8 units

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Athletics Under 7.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers

  • Over/Under: 11.5
  • First Pitch: 3:05 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Mike Clevinger (7-5, 3.47 ERA) vs. Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 8.60 ERA)

Since joining the Rangers and entering their starting rotation in mid-June, Yovani Gallardo has been a boon for ‘over’ bettors, churning out a perfect 5-0 record in his starts this season. Furthermore, each of his assignments has seen the final outcome tally at least 12 runs, as the former Milwaukee Brewer has produced only one quality start within that span.

So, what exactly am I seeing here that would snap Gallardo’s perfect ‘overs’ run? For starters, he’ll be taking on a solid opponent in Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger, who appears up for the task in deliver the first under victory in a Gallardo outing.

If you’ve been following Clevinger since he first came up two years ago, you may have noted that he’s much better on the road than at Progressive Field. For instance, last year in his first campaign as a full-time staff member with the Tribe, Clevinger went 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his away outings, but perhaps most impressive of all, the 27-year-old held opponents to a .187 batting average. His ERA (3.79), WHIP (1.35) and BAA (.233) were all significantly higher at home.

This season, it’s been more of the same, with Clevinger sporting a 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .212 BAA away from Cleveland, easily dwarfing the 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .270 BAA lines he’s put together at home. In addition, he’s been much better in an afternoon setting throughout his young career, with a sparkling 10-1 record and 2.65 ERA in 16 career starts (and four relief appearances) during the day.

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Of course, then we have Gallardo to worry about, but there’s reason for optimism in thinking the 12-year veteran can provide something useful for those on the under. To his credit, while he’s yet to limit any offense to less than three runs, he has done a fine job eating up innings, consuming at least five frames in all of his turns on the mound.

Gallardo also has a better track record in Arlington than people might recall. Remember, the 32-year-old spent a full season with the Rangers in 2015 and fared more than respectably (13-11, 3.42 ERA). That also includes some serviceable work when pitching in Texas, where he has made 20 career starts. In those outings, he’s 9-7 with a perfectly acceptable 4.14 ERA.

When working with unusually high lines, it’s key to enlist a starting pitching matchup that features at least one guy capable of manufacturing a standout performance. Obviously, Clevinger is that ideal pitcher here. Gallardo, though, can be just as important as long as he gives us something in line with his past work at Globe Life Park in Arlington.

Play: UNDER 11.5 (-115)

Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.