Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Yankees pitcher Luis Severino
MLB Betting: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
- Yankees: -130 (Luis Severino)
- Red Sox: +117 (Rick Porcello)
- Over/under: 9u-125
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
The New York Yankees were embarrassed by the Boston Red Sox, 15-7, in the opener of a four-game series on Thursday. The loss drops the Bronx Bombers to 6.5 games out of first place in the AL East.
New York looks to bounce back on Friday against Boston (7:10 p.m. ET) with ace Luis Severino taking the mound. Oddsmakers opened the Yanks as -130 favorites. After the eight-run loss, more than 60% of moneyline tickets are on the Red Sox.
Casual bettors are siding with Boston, which is not surprising, but I’m buying a Bronx Bombers bounce back:
Contrarian Betting Against Good Teams
Despite being favored, only 36% of moneyline bets are on the Yankees. This is rare. Since 2005, just 7% of favorites have received less than 40% of moneyline tickets according to Bet Labs.
Contrarian bettors can exploit this lopsided action. Again, since 2005 it has been profitable to bet teams getting little public support (less than 40% of bets) when they face elite teams (won 60% or more of their games). If the unpopular pick is also on a losing streak, one to three losses in a row, the team is 1,024-1,277-1 (45%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $14,191 betting teams that match this system.
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Red Sox After a Win
Yankees-Red Sox is one of the best rivalries in baseball because it’s competitive. Since 2005, the teams have played 251 games and New York holds a slight 130-121 edge. After one team wins, the other usually bounces back. Boston has really struggled after a victory in the series. Following a win by three or more runs against the Yankees, the Red Sox are 19-32 (37%) straight-up against New York in their next game.
I shared this nugget yesterday when it applied to New York. Now Boston is the underdog. The Red Sox have the most wins in baseball, so getting them at plus-money seems too good to be true. And it is.
Don’t let recency bias cloud your judgment. Look past the blowout loss and you’ll find a Yankees team with its best pitcher taking the mound and loads of historical data pointing to New York as a small favorite.