Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Marquez Keep Rolling Against the Padres?

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Marquez Keep Rolling Against the Padres? article feature image

Credit: Russell Lansford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: German Marquez.

Betting odds: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

  • Over/Under: 8
  • First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
  • Probable Pitchers: German Marquez (11-9, 4.21 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (5-7, 5.30 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Record: 87-57-3, +23.9 units

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Reds Under 9, Peralta vs. Harvey (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Most people may not have anticipated it but German Marquez has turned out to be one of Colorado’s most reliable starting pitchers in 2018.

He ranks second among Colorado’s starters in wins (11), ERA (4.21) and K/9 (9.62) and is on a roll of late.

Marquez has rolled off six consecutive quality starts coming into Thursday’s start and he’s only allowed more than two earned runs just once in that span.

Going a little bit beyond that, he’s accumulated nine quality starts in his last 10 trips to the mound, and in all of those outings, he picked up at least five strikeouts each time out.

Indeed, this has arguably been the biggest factor in Marquez’s emergence this season. He’s racking up more K’s than he ever has before — including during each of his stops in the minor leagues — and there’s a variety of reasons for that, which can help him sustain this production.

Marquez is drawing a higher percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone (29.2%) than he has previously, and at the same time, he’s also generating more swings and misses on pitches that were strikes (10.9%) as well.

In another marked improvement, opponents are making contact 76.3% of the time on all of Marquez’s pitches, down a few ticks from the 81.1% it was a year ago.

Perhaps most importantly, we’ll be entrusting Marquez in a start away from Coors Field, which is quite significant. This season, the 23-year-old has made 13 starts at home in Colorado, where he’s 4-6 with a 5.77 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .303 batting average against.

By contrast, he’s had the same number of assignments on the road, in which he’s 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .199 BAA. Oh, and he gets to pitch in one of baseball’s friendliest ballparks for pitchers in this one, Petco Park.

Opposite Marquez will be Eric Lauer, who makes his return from the disabled list after missing nearly a month with a forearm strain.

It can be dicey relying on a pitcher in his first start back after a stint on the sidelines but I like the potential of this 2016 first-round draft pick and what he may have to offer in his first start back.

Lauer has been inconsistent in his first Major League season. Through his first 18 starts in the bigs, the 23-year-old is 5-7 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.

Lauer was probably pitching a little better than his number suggest and the injury may have caused him to struggle considering he allowed 14 runs in 11 frames in his last three outings before going on the DL.

Prior to those three starts, Lauer owned a 4.40 ERA and put together a stretch where he yielded three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts.

To his credit, Lauer has kept the ball in the yard this season, serving up just 13 home runs in 86.2 innings. The Rockies can be one of the more explosive teams in baseball when it comes to the long ball, so if Lauer is able to take that away from them on this night, it could play a role in delivering this under.

Play: UNDER 8 (-125)