Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Bumgarner-Greinke Live Up to The Hype?

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Bumgarner-Greinke Live Up to The Hype? article feature image

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

Betting odds: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Over/Under: 7.5
  • First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET, Aug. 2.
  • Probable Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (3-4, 3.06 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (12-5, 2.96 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 70-46-3, +19.1 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Athletics Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.

Giants-Diamondbacks Breakdown

There will be the equivalent of a heavyweight showdown Thursday night in Arizona when these two contending NL West rivals begin a critical four-game set.

And it’s one that you really shouldn’t try to overthink.

In other words, when perennial NL Cy Young Award candidates Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke square off in this series opener, you can trust each hurler’s extensive history opposite tonight’s opponent and not have to look back.

Greinke has been his usual dominant self at home this season: 5-1 record with a 2.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .208 batting average against in 11 starts. He’s also surrendered almost three times fewer home runs at home (five) than he has on the road (13).

Because of the roll he’s on right now, Greinke seems like a good bet to continue his home prowess tonight. After all, he’s won seven straight decisions and nine of his past 10, giving up three runs or fewer in all but one of those assignments.

Furthermore, the 15-year veteran has strung together some impressive numbers against the Giants. He’s made 18 starts against San Francisco, going 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA. That includes a 2-0 mark last year, as well as a victory in the lone meeting this season, when Greinke fired seven three-hit innings of one-run ball on April 19.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Greinke

Bumgarner also has enjoyed similar success when facing his opponent. In fact, while the former World Series MVP owns a career 9-11 record against the D-backs, he’s put up a shiny 2.60 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .221 BAA in 30 career starts (and one relief appearance).

Mad Bum wasn’t spectacular in his lone start Arizona this season, but in his defense, it was his season debut on June 5 following a lengthy stint on the disabled list.

Since then, Bumgarner has been pitched like the ace we all know and love, as he’s 3-2 with a 2.44 ERA and .191 BAA in his last seven starts, racking up 42 strikeouts in 44.1 innings.

That last stat might be the most crucial, considering the 6-foot-5 southpaw had registered exactly three Ks in each of his first three starts of the year. Now, clearly, he’s more settled in and picking up the punchouts again.

So, as mentioned, no need to overthink this one. It’s two ace-caliber pitchers going at it with good potential for a duel, and all it may take is one standout showcase to get the job done. As a result, I’m on the under.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-120)

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