Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Orioles, Braves Will Be Sluggish After 15-Inning Affair

Jun 23, 2018 12:46 PM EDT

The Highlights

  • Braves pitcher Julio Teheran is coming off an 11-strikeout outing and has his velocity back.
  • Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy is playing away from home and during the day, two situations in which he’s thrived.
  • These two teams played 15 innings last night, and we should see some dead-bat backups in each lineup.

OK, another nice and easy win last night, as we didn’t even have to sweat in Cardinals-Brewers Under 8 thanks to some stellar work from both Jack Flaherty and Junior Guerra. Let’s try to keep it going on Saturday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 51-30-2, +17.8 units

Yesterday’s Result: Cardinals-Brewers Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Baltimore Orioles @ Atlanta Braves | O/U: 8.5

4:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Dylan Bundy (5-7, 3.81 ERA) vs. Julio Teheran (5-4, 3.97 ERA)

There was an epic bad beat on display in the series opener of this three-game set last night, but luckily, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about the possibility of a repeat outcome in Game 2.

Much of that belief emanates from the two starting pitchers, both of whom are in a groove.

Teheran is, of course, coming off his finest outing of the year in an under we won last Sunday, thanks in large part to his season-high 11 strikeouts. He was so terrific, in fact, that he didn’t even allow a single hit in his six shutout innings, yielding just three walks.

 

That start last weekend was Teheran’s first in 13 days, and the time off looks like it has done some good. He exhibited a livelier fastball in the winning effort. Previously, his average velocity was down a couple of ticks from a year ago, so if that stint on the disabled list helped him rest up and throw a bit harder again, Teheran could be in line for another solid showing today.

Teheran’s counterpart, Bundy, will certainly be in his desired conditions to register a positive outing as well. After all, this is a daytime assignment for the fourth pick of the 2011 draft, and that’s significant because Bundy holds the fourth-best ERA in afternoon games of any pitcher who has made at least five such starts. He’s 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA in seven outings under the sun. Furthermore, he’s logged a 0.92 WHIP and .171 batting average against in those games, to go with a 52/15 K/BB ratio in 47.2 innings.

Bundy has also been considerably better on the road this year, which makes sense considering Camden Yards’ well-known reputation as a hitter’s haven.

Since his infamous four-homer, seven-run performance without recording an out in the beginning of May, Bundy has rattled off seven straight starts of at least six innings, five of which were quality ones.

Perhaps just as important as anything, both teams figure to be taxed from last night’s 15-inning affair, and with this being a day game following a night game, there could be some dead-bat backups sprinkled throughout both lineups. Get this under in while the line remains at 8.5, as it’s already started dropping in some other places.

Play: UNDER 8.5 (-120)

Follow me on Twitter @MattZylbert


Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julio Teheran

Follow Matt Zylbert on Twitter
@MattZylbert
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