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Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Oddsmakers Underrating Astros-Dodgers Pitching Matchup

Credit:

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Gerrit Cole.

Betting odds: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Over/Under: 7.5
  • First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (10-3, 2.55 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (4-4, 3.65 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 72-47-3, +19.9 units

Yesterday’s Result: Angels-Indians Under 8.5, Peña vs. Kluber (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.


I was very surprised to see the over/under in this World Series rematch increase from 7 to 7.5.

Why?

Houston starter Gerrit Cole isn’t getting the respect he deserves for an assignment in this pitcher’s park. The All-Star right-hander has been a legitimate model of consistency in his first year with the Astros, recording at least five innings in all 22 of his starts. In the process, he’s posted the second-most K/9 (12.35), fifth-most quality starts (16) and second-lowest batting average against (.181) in the AL.

So, not only is Cole making a respectable case for Cy Young candidacy, he’s also hitting his stride right now, exhibiting no signs of wearing down with the calendar flipping to August.

The former No. 1 overall draft pick has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts, racking up 56 K’s across 40.2 innings pitched within that span.

Cole may be in an opportune spot this afternoon, too: Despite the Dodgers plating a whopping 21 runs only a few days ago, they’ve only scored one run total since in the first two games of this series.

Oddsmakers are also underrating Cole’s counterpart in this one, Walker Buehler.  Prior to going down with an injury in June, the 24-year-old had put together a sensational first two months of his first full big-league season, owning a 2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .203 BAA through nine starts before landing on the disabled list.

Buehler appears to have settled in again, firing one of his best outings of the campaign his last time out, holding a potent Brewers lineup to one run on five hits in seven sharp innings, as he also walked none and struck out seven.

The main key today for the former Vanderbilt grad will be that Houston is still without its superstar-laden middle infield. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa remain out, and the bats replacing them are considerable downgrades. Being a day game after a night affair, there might be some additional dead-bat backups on both sides.

There’s real potential for a duel here, and with the line at 7.5, we can even afford one of these two talented hurlers being off his game.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)


Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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