MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/5: The Oakland Athletics Continue to be Undervalued
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 5 slate of baseball games with his model below, including A's-Astros and Marlins-Braves.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
If you plan on tailing this column for most of the season, you might want to consider getting yourself an Oakland Athletics jersey. More specifically, you should probably get one with “Lazer” Ramón Laureano’s name and number on the back, before they’re completely sold out.
The A’s center fielder gunned down a Red Sox player for the third time in 2019 on Wednesday, nabbing Mookie Betts at third base in the ninth inning of the A’s 7-3 victory:
WHY 👏 ARE 👏 WE 👏 STILL 👏 RUNNING 👏 ON 👏 RAMON LAUREANO??? pic.twitter.com/bEWaLnQLOy
— Red Sox on CLNS (@RedSoxCLNS) April 4, 2019
Between Laureano and Matt Chapman, this is the most entertaining baseball team for me to watch, defensively, since those back-to-back World Series appearances for the Kansas City Royals.
The A’s moved my favorite bets to an 8-0 record, and I backed them in all three victories in their series win over Boston, so yeah, we’ll be big Oakland fans all season.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
Yesterday was a bad slate and one that I was never excited about whatsoever.
Unfortunately, I was way off on projecting the game total for Toronto-Cleveland. The line moved down a half of a run, before seeing over money, and I was never on the right side of that action.
That being said, if you bet the under, it was a major sweat and you probably got a bit lucky to cash your ticket. Trevor Bauer left after seven innings of no-hit baseball, but the teams in the matchup combined for 13 walks, two hit batsmen and 20 stranded runners on base — leaving the bags full multiple times.
The model also suggested Baltimore, who I took at a price (+195) just short of their closing line (+199); the O’s bullpen blew a three-run lead in an 8-4 loss.
Though I didn’t pick them, the model also suggested Detroit, which won, 5-4, at home at a closing line of -102.
Obviously, Oakland came through with a victory once again. The action on that game was interesting, as the Athletics opened at +100 and then flipped from odds of +105, to -105, before closing back at +107.
Overall, a pretty lackluster day, easily our worst so far, in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
On Deck for Friday 4/5
All odds as of early Friday morning.
The model recommends two full game moneylines for Friday, and there are five other potentially actionable contests too.
Based upon early lines, the model sees an edge on both Miami (+140) at Atlanta and Oakland (+160) at Houston today. I gave those out on Twitter in the wee hours of the morning, as I was projecting games.
We’ve already seen positive CLV in that Oakland matchup, as the current line sits around +145 in most places. That is the lowest number that I would play it.
A’s pitcher Frankie Montas appears ready to take a step forward this year. He has developed a splitter to help get lefties out (his existing weakness), and the 2019 results have been eye-opening so far — a 16:5 K:BB ratio in 16 spring training innings, and the following line in his first regular-season start against the Angels: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1HB, 0 BB, 6 K.
Montas already owns a plus slider to help get righties out, and he alters his delivery, like Johnny Cueto, as another tool in his belt:
Frankie Montas, Messing with Timing (Quick Pitch/K). pic.twitter.com/Up6KUpGr18
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 8, 2019
If he now owns a true weapon in that splitter to counteract left-handed hitters, you could be looking at a long term number two starter in this rotation.
Five other games are showing an edge of over 2.9% based upon opening lines
The Diamondbacks had a 3% edge over the Red Sox at +115, which is now closer to their fair odds of +101. I’ll pass on that game.
I’ll also pass on the Reds-Pirates game. Cincinnati had close to a 4% edge at +115, but their line has seen a 10 cent adjustment to +105, and I’m unwilling to bet on an offense that has been shutout for two consecutive games, and three times already on the young season.
At +115, the Giants had a 3.5% edge at home against Tampa Bay, but the Rays are a buzzsaw, and there is no value now after a 10-cent adjustment (+105) toward the Giants.
The two other teams that I will play have their home openers today — the Rockies (+120) against the Dodgers, and the White Sox (+115) against the Mariners.
Colorado’s line may have moved down a couple of pennies, while the Chicago line has moved to the lowest price that I am comfortable playing them (+110)
My Bets (So Far) for April 5
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Chicago White Sox (+115)
- Colorado Rockies (+122)
- Miami Marlins (+140)
- Oakland Athletics (+160) – Favorite bet; would play to +145
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/5: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.